Contactar con Bordier
The quality of these results, announced as preliminary figures last week, is extremely high and should lead to an upward revision of estimates, even though the consensus is already firmly fixed at the top end of the range of management’s operating target. Allianz is trading on reasonably valued multiples given its higher than average solidity which makes it a particularly safe investment among financial stocks. PLUS rating reaffirmed.
Allianz reported a very sound set of 2012 results and issued an encouraging outlook statement for 2013. The one disappointment was the decision to leave the dividend unchanged (at €4.50) despite the group’s very comfortable solvency ratio. Management cited attractive growth opportunities as ample justification for keeping the payout ratio to 40%. Allianz is trading at attractive valuation multiples and still looks one of the safest investment plays among financials. PLUS rating reiterated.
Last week, Allianz had pre-announced that its results would come in above expectations, but the quality of the figures still needed to be confirmed in detail. This confirmation was resoundingly delivered this morning: all divisions showed a solid to spectacular operating trend in the full set of published results. Allianz is our favoured pick among insurance shares and has confirmed its merits as a core holding in portfolios. PLUS rating reiterated.
Allianz published robust results, ahead of expectations overall - reassuring in the macroeconomic environment prevailing this last quarter. The market should take comfort from the group’s strong business model, based on geographical diversification which smaller European insurers cannot offer. The strong balance sheet fundamentals are only reflected to a very small extent in the valuation. PLUS rating confirmed.
Allianz had already made a preliminary announcement of higher than expected operating profit at its Investor Day last Wednesday. However, the details were only unveiled today - and there are no nasty surprises. Though some of the gap has arisen from non-recurring investment gains in life insurance, other divisions have put up creditable performances and the group’s solvency continues to improve from an already very sound base. Indeed, the valuation discount is not justified. PLUS rating reiterated.
Allianz is highly diversified, both geographically and by business activities. In non-life insurance, progress on costs, linked to higher premium rates in such important segments for the group as the motor business in Germany (4-5% of revenues), makes new underwriting more profitable. In life insurance, penalised by current investment opportunities, the emphasis is being placed on products which are less heavily dependent on interest rates and use less capital (especially with the transition to the Solvency II economic model). Finally, the importance of asset management (PIMCO) is growing within the group, thanks to fast-growing assets (+9.2% in 2011 to €1,657 billion).
The group published fundamentally robust Q3 results. The operating result was ahead of expectations overall, despite the severe impact of natural disasters in Germany and the United States. The net profit was also adversely affected by the vagaries of the financial markets, without, however, degrading the book value and solvency which remain very satisfactory. The 2011 result objective and dividend are not at risk. The current discount against the sector is unjustified.
Following the publication of robust Q2 results, performance indicators for all of the group’s divisions are good and the balance sheet remains very healthy. Allianz generated a €3.96 billion operating profit in H1, enough to confirm the annual target of €7.5-8.5 billion. There is therefore no justifiable reason for the 25% discount on the share price on the basis of 2012e multiples. PLUS code confirmed.
Following a very successful Q2, Allianz generated a €3.96 billion operating profit in H1, enough to confirm the annual objective of €7.5-8.5 billion - particularly significant as the early part of the year saw major natural disasters and difficult financial markets. Performance indicators for all of the group’s divisions are good and the balance sheet remains very healthy. There is therefore no apparent reason for the 12% discount on the share price on the basis of 2012e multiples. PLUS code confirmed.
Allianz ended 2010 with an operating profit totalling €8.2 billion, €1 billion above the objective set by a conservative management. We therefore welcome the modest target of €7.5-8.5 billion for 2011 with a certain optimism. Despite very strong fundamentals, Allianz is trading at a 15% discount on the basis of its 2011e earnings. We do not think that this is justified: PLUS code confirmed.
Annual results for 2010 published by Allianz are slightly better than expected and fundamentally sound. The group’s broad diversification remains one of its strengths, together with a robust balance sheet. Fears expressed today by the management over the implementation of the Solvency II regulatory framework (with effect from 2013) and a dividend policy in a capital preservation mode do not come across very well. But this looks more like a policy message than operational guidance. PLUS code confirmed in a long-term perspective.
Allianz has published a good operating result of 2.1 billion in Q3, slightly higher year on year and 7% better than expected. After solid results for the first 9 months of 2010, the management has raised its profit forecast for 2010 to the upper end of the range which seems well within its reach. The process of revaluation of this share which we had been expecting began some weeks ago and the positive outlook described today will continue to boost the price in 2011. PLUS code confirmed.
Allianz emerged strengthened from the first half of the year on the operational side in all its divisions. Revenues advanced clearly and margins improved overall. Shareholder’s equity is benefiting and solvency improving year on year. Allianz is therefore trading at an unjustified discount of 20%, based on 2011e results, despite its good fundamentals and an above-average dividend yield of 5.6%. PLUS code confirmed.
Allianz published a very good Q2 operating result at €2.2 billion, up 22.7% year on year and 10% ahead of expectations. All the key divisions performed better than expected and the asset management business again merits special acknowledgment of the steep increase in assets under management. The basis from which commission income is derived continues to grow sustainably. Another positive factor: optimistic comments on non-life insurance income with higher premium revenues on the groups’ principal markets.
Q1 2010 results announced by Allianz were unsurprising in the non-life division and much better than expected in life insurance and asset management. This evolution is positive for the group’s diversification into activities with better short/medium-term potential. The increasingly large asset base, notably in asset management, is a growing source of stable revenues. The current average discount of 26% means that Allianz is a portfolio fund that cannot be ignored in its sector. PLUS code confirmed.
After a year 2009 which still suffered a loss of €400 million generated by the disposal of Dresdner Bank, Allianz is now free to focus on the operational improvement of the results in its non-life division in particular. In an environment of moderate growth at best, a 1% cost ratio reduction can be worth €400 million. Allianz is therefore trading at an unjustified discount of 20%, despite its fundamentals and dividend yield which are 5% better than average. PLUS code confirmed.
Allianz has published an annual profit of at €4.3 billion, in line with expectations. 2010 forecasts announced by the management are encouraging rather than extravagant. Confirmation this year of the very good operating result reported in 2009 (€7.2 billion), without the €400 million losses on activities which have since been divested, should generate a net profit close to €5 billion in 2010. Allianz is therefore trading at an unjustified discount of 23%, despite its fundamentals and dividend yield which are 5% better than average.
Q3 results published by Allianz are reassuring. The subscription margin for its non-life portfolio is improving, with no accounting artifices. The life insurance business dynamic is good and the cost-cutting program is starting to yield results. In addition, provision for the payment of a comfortable dividend (around €4) reflects the management’s (justified) confidence in the group’s solvency. The current share price is an excellent opportunity to strengthen positions.
After a first half partially marred by non-life business, Allianz is unequivocally forecasting recovery in the second half, and we agree. Also measures taken at the right time to clean up the life insurance business are beginning to bear fruit. Allianz has also put to rest former fears concerning the quality of its investments. Its balance sheet is now very solid, which its 17% discount to the rest of the sector does not reflect. PLUS rating repeated.
Q2 results announced by Allianz proved somewhat disappointing compared to those published by ZFS yesterday, but in the balance the positive points outweigh the main problem area. Profitability of the non-life insurance business activity, measured by the combined ratio, fell short of expectations although the company does forecast a recovery in the second half. On the other hand, measures taken to restructure the life insurance business are proving successful and the management seems to be preparing to pay a dividend at least equivalent to the 2008 figure.
Allianz is one of the most diversified and solvent insurers in the insurance sector, which gives it superior resilience in the face of the crisis. However at 0.77x its book value, the stock is trading at a below par rating (-17%) which is unjustified in relation to the insurance industry, and retains great potential to go higher. As a result, because of its defensive virtues and the solidity of its fundamentals, ALV confirms its status as a core holding stock among the financials.
Allianz published a net profit (for recurrent activities) in 2008 of €4bn (-46%). However this result reflects the €6.4bn losses linked to the sale of Dresdner Bank. Non-life insurance activity remained particularly resilient in the face of the crisis and the group’s solvency ratio, 161% at the end of 2008, confirms its robustness. Currently trading with a below par rating of 19% in relation to the sector, the stock merits better treatment in view of its superior fundamentals. PLUS code reiterated.
Allianz has finally divested Dresdner Bank, its banking subsidiary which it was never really able to put back on a profitable footing. The conditions of the transaction may not be economically excellent, but the fact that uncertainties linked to the evolution of Dresdner Bank have now been lifted once and for all is excellent news for investors. Allianz has once more become a “pure play” insurer, focused on what it does best: insurance. PLUS code confirmed.
Commerzbank and Allianz have reached agreement on a renegotiation of the terms for the transfer of ownership of Dresdner. The new situation is favourable to both parties since it will enable ALV to extricate itself more effectively from its exposure to the banking sector, by receiving more cash than CBK shares. For CBK, the dilution of future profits is clearly less severe following the cancellation of a major share issue. The acquisition of Dresdner at a price below its book value will also have a positive impact on CBK’s equity capital.
Allianz has announced a Q3 operating profit (on recurring activities) of €1.6 billion (-39%) in line with expectations. The solvency ratio has also advanced strongly to 157%, making the risk of a capital increase look rather unlikely; but that is not yet reflected in the share price. At 0.7x equity 2009e, Allianz is trading with an unjustified markdown of 25% against the competition. Any weakness of the share price is a good opportunity for investors to strengthen their positions in this stock.
The sale of Dresdner Bank by Allianz had been expected for a long time by the market. At €9.8 billion, the cost of the transaction is good news for Allianz, for whom we reiterate the PLUS code. Conversely, Commerzbank seems to have paid a high price for becoming the German N°1 in retail banking and SME financing. But in reality the industrial logic of the transaction is undeniable and the synergies that can be achieved by CBK are considerable, making today’s fall in the stock exaggerated. PLUS code reaffirmed on Commerzbank.
Allianz is an excellent insurance company which has remained largely unscathed by the financial crisis. The risk of residual loss on its risky assets’ portfolio is low, solvency is high and will be even greater following the sale of Dresdner Bank. The valuation discount (-6% in terms of 2009e PE) against its sector is unjustified; the present share price provides an attractive entry point in the stock.
Allianz is an excellent insurance franchise and is working through the crisis quite serenely. The risk of residual loss linked to the financial crisis is low, solvency is high and will become more so after the sale of Dresdner Bank. The marked below par rating (-15% in terms of PE 2009) of the stock compared to its sector is severe and represents an opportunity to strengthen positions in an excellent “portfolio base” stock. PLUS code reiterated.
Allianz published its 2007 results today. They are in line with market expectations. The company remains confident over its ability to achieve its medium-term objectives, but concedes that the financial environment will continue to have an adverse impact on its profitability. PLUS
Q307 results published by Allianz were above market expectations. The numbers were influenced by higher insurance premiums and writedowns on the banking business. In view of the good results, the wide diversification of earnings by business and geographical area and the attractive valuation (PE 6.9x ‘08e versus 8.6x for the sector), our PLUS code is repeated.
The target of 10% net annual profit growth with 2006 as the base year is ambitious but feasible. Job cuts announced on the insurance side and at Dresdner should help to reduce group costs. The pursuit of Dresdner’s return to profitability will be the key to future success. The markdown on the sector is likely to be made good gradually (PER’08e at 8.2x versus 9x).
Results are excellent and show that Allianz is on the right track with its restructuring program. The financial targets announced for the various divisions should help to reassure investors. The German insurer should continue to benefit from good geographical and business activity diversification. A PER’07e at 9.6x against a sector at 11.1x reflects neither the future improvement of the fundamentals nor the quality of the management.
The results are excellent and prove that Allianz is on the right track towards restructuring. The higher financial targets for the year will lead to an upgrading of the consensus. The cost structure remains too heavy, especially on the banking side, but recent job cuts should help to improve profitability. A PER’07e at 9.6x against a sector of 10.6x does not reflect the future improvement of fundamentals.
The results are excellent and show that the Allianz restructuring plan is well under way. The upward revision of financial objectives for the year reinforces our positive opinion. The cost structure remains too cumbersome, especially in the banking activity, but recent job cuts should contribute to better profitability. A PER’07e of 8.9x against a sector at 9.8x does not reflect the improvement of fundamentals which has yet to come. Facts: excellent Q2 2006.
Allianz has announced a restructuring plan which reflects the management’s determination to improve the group’s efficiency. Job cuts will be implemented until the end of 2007 through voluntary redundancies. The synergies will be fully effective by the end of 2008. This news should help to reassure investors over the expectation of a net profit of EUR 4.9 billion (+10% Y/Y) for the current year.
Results are in line with expectations. Once again, Dresdner is the only disappointment. The current restructuring process is well under way, but the cost structure is still too heavy. The valuation remains attractive with a PER’06e at 11x against a sector at 11.5x. PLUS code confirmed.
Operating results are satisfactory, but figures for the banking business are disappointing. All of the financial targets set for 2005 will no doubt be achieved. Restructuring is well under way, but a great deal of effort remains to be made. The group’s recovery plan has probably not yet been completed. Further cost cutting measures are still on the cards. The valuation remains attractive with a PER’06e of 10.2x against 10.5x for the sector. PLUS code maintained.
The announcement of the buyout of minority shareholders in RAS (Italy) has come sooner than expected, but also confirms the improvement of the financial situation at Allianz. This operation helps to simplify the group’s structure and should generate cost synergies. On the other hand, the dividend payment is disappointing. We confirm our positive opinion because the valuation is attractive (PER’06e at 9.3x against 10x for the sector) and restructuring is well under way.
The many restructuring operations begun in recent years at Dresdner are beginning to yield benefits. The targets of a net profit of EUR 4 billion in 2005 and 10% growth in 2006 are likely to be exceeded. We remain cautious in our estimates with a net profit of EUR 4.5 billion, equivalent to a PER’06e of 9.3x against a sector at 10.3x. The share remains attractive. PLUS code confirmed.
Allianz benefits from good revenue diversification between life and nonlife business. The restructuring of Dresdner is well under way and the capital cost should be recouped before the end of 2005. The management that reassured investors with regard to the reduction of bond yields. Costs seem to be under control. The share remains attractive with a PER’06e of 8.7x against a sector figures of 9.8x. PLUS code maintained.
The results are good and the current restructuring programme is well under way. The nonlife insurance sector continues to spearhead the Allianz business. The good geographical diversification of its revenues and activities should benefit the group. In addition, the valuation remains attractive with a PER’05e of 9.3x against a sector at 9.5x. Finally, if the financial markets recover strongly, its equity exposure (high in comparison to its competitors) should prove profitable. PLUS code maintained.
The results published for the year 2003 disappointed investors. The EUR 1.16 billion net profit is at the lower end of the consensus. The profit benefited from the sale of the Allianz shareholding interest in Beiersdorf for EUR 2.8 billion. Finally, prospects for 2004 (+4% premium growth) look weak. We maintain our positive opinion because of the good results of the nonlife division which shows a 97% combined ratio.
Allianz kept its promise and was back in the black at the end of the first nine months of 2003 with a net profit of EUR 421 million. The insurance business is proving promisingly strong with a substantially higher operating profit. Only the banking activity is finding the return to profitability difficult and still reports a loss of EUR 69 million. We confirm our PLUS code because of the good recovery potential of this share.
Allianz kept its promise and was in the black again after the first nine months of 2003 with a net profit totalling EUR 421 million against an EUR 2.5 billion loss in 2002. The insurance activity performed strongly and looks promising with a significantly higher operating profit in both the life and nonlife segments. Only the banking division is having difficulty in earning a profit. It still reported an EUR 69 million loss. Our opinion of this share with its strong recovery potential remains highly positive.
The German Government has confirmed that losses recorded on the portfolios of life insurance companies will continue to be taxdeductible. However, this tax deduction is to be accompanied by the reintroduction of a capital gains tax. This had previously been abolished in 2000. A vote on the final fiscal project is expected to be taken on Friday with adoption following before the end of 2003. This is clearly good news for Allianz which will not need to set aside a provision for Q3 2003 (estimated at between EUR 300 million and EUR 1 billion).
In our opinion, the 2002 annual results presented a mixed picture. The value adjustments are in line with the figures published by its competitors. However, restructuring measures taken by the Dresdner banking group do not go far enough. Finally, the operating strength (premium income +9.9%) is very encouraging. We therefore confirm our Plus code.
On 30 September 2002, Allianz reported a loss of Eur 924 million on the first nine months of the year, against a profit of more than Eur 1.3 billion in 2001. The scale of this downturn is larger than expected. It is essentially attribuable to problems of an exceptional nature in the first quarter. In short, the worst may now be behind us.
Allianz's net profit was up 15% during the first six months of 2002 against 2001. The group has published encouraging figures, above expectations. On the whole, the insurance division stood firm. The Dresdner bank is the main activity which is holding back the operating profit. We maintain our Plus code because we believe that, with twothirds of its net premium income in the nonlife segment, the group will fully benefit from the rise in premium rates for nonlife policies.
We believe that the risks inherent in the Dresdner Bank must not be allowed to hide the very positive outlook for the German nonlife (twothirds of net premium income) insurance giant. Moreover, the group’s solvency is more than adequate and, should the need arise, the German major has a portfolio of financial interests estimated at EUR 30 billion to cover its needs without resorting to the market. We are adjusting our code from under review to Plus.
The strategy adopted by Allianz for its Dresdner banking division has been named «Turnaround 2003» or Volte Face 2003. It centres on three main lines of action: cost cutting, measures to maintain earnings and, thirdly, greater control over the units. The measures taken are good. However, the targets especially for the maintenance of earnings – are ambitious. We believe that failure to meet the objectives would inevitably penalize the German Group and are therefore changing our recommendation from Plus to «under review» to enable the negative impact of Dresdner to be measured more accurately.
Allianz has reported a net profit of 1.7 billion euros (50%), in line with market expectations. The integration of the Dresdner, the tax reform and pension funds reform hold out the prospect of a bright future for this insurance company. We are maintaining our Plus Code.
Allianz, the leading German insurer, is negotiating to take control of Germany’s third largest bank, the Dresdner Bank. This acquisition would enable Allianz to broaden its insurance and mutual fund distribution network in Europe.
version française