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Roche has announced a huge restructuring plan; this will affect the entire group following increasing pressure on the price of drugs and also because of bad news on the R&D side which has hit the group this year. This program marks a turning point in the history of the company which should easily recover in the medium term. PLUS code maintained.
Figures published by Roche are likely to come as a relief to the market in the short term. The management’s attitude during the conference call this afternoon will be crucial. Sales by the Pharmaceuticals division seem rather weak to us, but they are offset by excellent operational progress. PLUS code confirmed.
Our PLUS code for Roche is based on the exceptional growth generated by its oncology portfolio, thanks to an impressive range of biological preparations with excellent clinical data. Roche deserves its valuation (growth, specialty strategy combined with low risk). The share has all the attributes of a core investment in the pharmaceutical industry.
Roche has published somewhat disappointing results for 2009. However, we continue to believe that they were influenced by non-recurring items (exchange rates and US destocking). Fundamentals remain solid. PLUS code maintained.
Our PLUS code for Roche is based on the exceptional growth generated by its oncology portfolio, thanks to an impressive range of biological preparations with excellent clinical data. The acquisition of Genentech will support future growth. The share has all the attributes of a core investment in the pharmaceutical industry.
Roche has published better than expected sales for the first 9 months thanks largely to the performance of its antiviral drug Tamiflu which has broken the CHF 2 billion sales barrier. Other drugs are more or less in line, albeit with a few weaknesses, but nothing too dramatic. PLUS code maintained.
Roche published results for the first half of 2009 above market expectations. Organic growth is very solid. The integration of Genentech is going smoothly and synergies of CHF1billion per annum until 2011 will be generated. Prospects have been revised upwards for 2009 and 2010. Our PLUS code is reiterated.
Our PLUS code for Roche is based on the exceptional growth generated by its oncology portfolio, thanks to an impressive range of biological preparations with excellent clinical data. The acquisition of Genentech will support future growth. The share has all the attributes of a defensive investment in the pharmaceutical industry.
Roche has published Q1 2009 sales figures in line with expectations. No details were released about the integration of Genentech (prospects, impacts…) or the eagerly awaited clinical data for Avastin as an adjuvant (NSABP-C08 study). We remain confident. PLUS code confirmed.
Roche has published somewhat disappointing results for 2008. The Diagnostics division is proving a burden on the group as is the negative impact of exchange rate variations and the low financial profit (interest rates!). Prospects have been revised down against 2008. Roche prefers caution. We are maintaining our PLUS code because the portfolio and pipeline fundamentals remain unchanged. Furthermore, the fact that no patent expiries are due is an undeniable advantage. In our opinion, the market reaction has been exaggerated…
Roche has announced its intention of making a public offer for the acquisition of Genentech after negotiations with the company’s management failed. Roche currently owns 55.8% of Genentech. To everyone’s surprise, the offer was lowered to USD 86.50 per share from the original USD 89. This announcement was very well received by the market and reflects Roche’s tenacity as well as its determination not to pay over the odds, so protecting its shareholders. PLUS.
Our PLUS code for Roche is based on the exceptional growth generated by its oncology portfolio, thanks to an impressive range of biological preparations with excellent clinical data. Roche deserves its valuation (growth, low risk strategy of combined specialties). The share has all the attributes needed for a defensive investment in the pharmaceutical industry.
Roche’s figures are good. The Pharma division confirmed its well-established position in the oncology sector thanks to Avastin and the rest of its portfolio. Our investment arguments remain unchanged: strongest growth in Europe, potential for margin improvement, low exposure to patent expiries, rich and deep pipeline. However, the lack of any immediate news stream (next important step: data for Avastin as an adjuvant — mid-2009) and uncertainty over the Genentech offer could cap the share. Furthermore, the strong recovery of this share in the past 10 days (around 22%) might encourage some investors to take their profits and so bring the share price down for the time being.
Genentech published its Q3 2008 results yesterday evening after the US market had closed. The figures were in line with investors’ expectations, but sales of the star products were even higher than anticipated. Genentech’s results are a very good pointer to those of Roche. We also believe that Roche should buy out Genentech despite the management’s opposition. Financing seems to be guaranteed by 17 banks, although the terms and conditions have not yet been decided. PLUS.
Roche published its results for the 1st half of 2008 today. They are more or less in line with expectations. Roche took the opportunity to announce its intention of buying out the minority shareholders in Genentech to gain full control of this subsidiary. PLUS code maintained.
Genentech published its quarterly results last night after the market had closed. These numbers are interesting in terms of sentiment on Roche because it has a 55.9% shareholding interest in that company. We are convinced that Roche is the only major pharmaceutical company which will emerge unscathed from the present crisis of patent expiries and R&D productivity problems. PLUS code confirmed.
ASCO (American Society for Clinical Oncology) is an important player for pharmaceutical companies active in oncology. Roche too is under its influence and this year many investors had doubts over the supremacy of Avastin, threatened by the publication of clinical trials of a competing pharmaceutical, Erbitux, made by Merck KGaA. In the end, this substance does not show any real advantages over Avastin which remains THE gold standard for treatment. This news will certainly push the Roche share price back up strongly.
The results published by Roche fell short of market expectations. We are not particularly worried by this because the negative factors are attributable essentially to exchange rates and the base effect for Tamiflu. These effects will probably have no impact on the profit per share level because of the natural hedge enjoyed by Roche. Roche remains our favourite share in this sector and is one of the few with the ability to resist the changing environment.
Roche has published annual results for 2007 which are better than the market had been expecting. The Pharma division reported excellent performance and the Diagnostics division is gradually recovering. Prospects for 2008 are cautious, but the company has always been conservative in its business forecasts. PLUS code confirmed.
Roche has announced the acquisition of Ventana for USD 3.4 billion. The offer has been approved after a 19% increase on the figures announced previously (USD 89.50 against USD 75). This is roughly 10x 2007 sales, broadly within the range of the multiples habitually paid for high growth companies. This addition to the Diagnostics Division will enable Roche to continue its therapeutic strategy with the focus on oncology. PLUS code strongly recommended.
Genentech published its annual results last night after the US market had closed. Sales of Avastin and Lucentis, the two growth motors of the company, turned out to be below consensus. Prospects for 2008 are conservative but solid. In 2008 the spotlight will again be turned on Avastin (FDA decisions, crucial clinical data). We still believe in the Roche profile in the European pharmaceutical context. The company seems to be the only one with the ability to emerge unscathed from the turbulence generated by patent expiries and the cruel lack of growth relays. Our PLUS code on Roche is confirmed: buy whenever the market price is weak.
Roche has published its sales figures for Q1 2007. They are better than the consensus view. The company has also taken the opportunity to raise its growth forecasts, which were previously too cautious. Roche remains the best investment in the pharmaceutical sector at present (strong sustainable longterm growth, gold standard treatments portfolio, rich and promising pipeline, no patents due to expire soon). PLUS code confirmed.
Today, Roche has announced the preliminary phase 3 results of the AVAIL study of Avastin in combination with the chemotherapeutic gemcitabine/cisplatin cocktail for the treatment of advanced lung cancer. The study had so far been positive with the lowest dose. The market did not take kindly to the news as it would result in a 50% reduction in the price of Avastin. Not everything is so gloomy…PLUS code confirmed.
Results published by Roche were slightly higher than market expectations. The Pharmaceuticals division performed well thanks to Genentech and Tamiflu. The Diagnostics division proved very disappointing, confirming its position as the laggard in terms both of growth and of profitability. Prospects indicated for the year 2007 are very conservative, as usual; however, they will easily be bettered in practice as has been the case in previous years. PLUS code maintained.
The sales figures published by Roche for the first nine months of 2006 were higher than the market was expecting. The difference is explained by Tamiflu (influenza) and Boniva (osteoporosis). The prospects for 2006 have been confirmed.
Today, Roche and Genentech announced the authorization of Avastin for the treatment of lung cancer in combination with standard chemotherapy. Although this product is already being used on an “off label” basis for this indication, the further potential is substantial: around USD 1 billion (horizon 2010e, equivalent to 15% of sales of this pharmaceutical).
Genentech has published better results than the market had been expecting. Lucentis, a new treatment for macular degeneration, has proved hugely successful but sales of the oncology portfolio have been disappointing. The share price fell slightly in afterhours trading and Roche can be expected to lose a little ground today.
Roche and Genentech announced yesterday that the FDA was asking for additional information about the application for the registration of Avastin for the treatment of metastatic breast cancer. This delay will only last for approximately 12 to 18 months, depending on the degree of detail of the data requested. The market seems to have overreacted to the news, mainly because of the current highly stretched valuation.
Summary: Genentech’s results for Q2 2006 were published last night. They are in line with expectations, although the figures for Avastin proved disappointing. In view of Genentech’s sensitivity to this drug, the share was trading 3% lower after the markets closed. Apart from Avastin, the good quality of the results strengthens our positive opinion of Roche.
Roche has published annual results above market expectations. The valuation is high but justified for the following reasons: improved margins, growth prospects, low generic risk and good pipeline (CERA, Actemra, Mabthera, Rituxan). PLUS code maintained.
Q4 2005 results of Genentech (NR) will be published tonight in the United States. Roche (PLUS) owns more than 55% of Genentech (PLUS). Figures are generally in line with market expectations. Genentech sales are a partial indicator of Roche’s performances, especially in cancer treatment products. Despite a weaker dynamic at Genentech than in Q3, growth remains spectacular (+47% YOY)! This publication augurs well for Roche’s own results (due to be published on 1 February 2006). PLUS code maintained.
This morning, Roche held a telephone conference on the subject of bird flu and Tamiflu production. The discussion of various issues clarified the situation with regard to the level of risk of a pandemic, the production capacities of Roche and the price structure of Tamiflu. Roche is not only the “Tamiflu Company” but also has other plus points, including a franchise for cancer treatment and the diagnostics division (currently undervalued by the market). PLUS code maintained.
Roche has published sales for Q3 2005 above market expectations. The valuation is high but the growth prospects look attractive. We believe that Roche remains an ideal defensive share in any portfolio. In addition, Q4 should see plenty of important announcements of extensions of indications. PLUS code maintained.
Genentech published briliant results yesterday evening. Well above the already very high market expectations, these figures confirmed the company’s excellent health. The Genentech share price gained more than 5% in afterhours trading.. This is a very good sign for the results of Roche (Roche owns 56.1% of Genentech) which will be published on 19 October 2005. The visibility and the growth profile (20% of EPS, 11% of sales for the 20052009 period) of Roche remain unrivalled in the European pharmaceutical sector. PLUS code maintained.
Genentech published its results for Q2 2005 last night after the US market closed. EPS are above market expectations at USD 0.30 (consensus: USD 0.26). In addition, Genentech reviewed its profit growth projection upwards from 30% to 35%. These results look good for Roche which is to publish its figures on 20 July. PLUS code maintained.
Roche is being attacked by Gilead which has terminated the marketing contract for Tamiflu, a drug it invented. Approved in 1996, the contract stipulates that Roche is responsible for the production and international sale of the product and should pay royalties to Gilead. Authorized in 1999, Tamiflu took some time to make its mark and sales were never exceptional. However, with the emergence of bird flu, the product has met with renewed interest and at that very time Gilead decided to demand payment of all its rights. A strategic opportunity? Yes indeed.. These events do not change our opinion. PLUS code maintained.
Sales figures published by Roche for Q1 2005 were significantly higher than consensus. The Pharmaceuticals division reported very good results with 22% growth (excluding FX) thanks to the sustained performance of Avastin (colorectal cancer) and Tamiflu (flu). The Diagnostics division remains weak with 4% growth (excluding FX). Roche has also raised its forecasts for 2005 (sales and operating margin of the Pharmaceutical division). We like the strategy of the company which focuses on value creation and on synergies with diagnostics. PLUS code confirmed.
Published after the closure of the US market last night, Genentech’s Q1 2005 results proved better than expected (USD 0.29 against USD 0.25). However, sales of Avastin disappointed the market because they grew by just 6.5% against Q4 2004. In the light of these results, investors might decide to take their profits on Genentech and Roche; a period of consolidation would then begin for the two shares. We confirm our PLUS code because of the excellent fundamentals and we await the announcement of Q1 2005 sales on 19 April 2005.
Last night, Roche and Genentech published impressive clinical results for Avastin, a drug used to treat lung cancer (NSCLC –Non small cell lung cancer). The median global survival rate has risen from 10.2 to 12.5 months (+22.5%). Details will be published by ASCO (American Society of Clinical Oncology), on the occasion of a very important conference on cancer treatment scheduled for 13 to 17 May 2005. This announcement should help to close the underperformance gap on Roche which has built up since early 2005 and justifies our positive opinion. PLUS.
Roche has published disappointing results for 2004. All the figures are below market expectations. We believe that this is only a minor glitch. PLUS code maintained – we like the speciality strategy (oncology/virology/diagnostics) pursued by Roche. The valuation is quite high (but in our opinion justifiably so) and might prevent a significant shortterm share price gain. But in the mediumterm, news about the pipeline (notably Lucentis for the treatment of macular degeneration and Avastin in the fight against lung cancer) could have a positive impact on performance.
Published after the US market closed last night, the 2004 results of Genentech were in line with the company’s forecasts (and even at the upper end of the range), but nevertheless below expectations (USD 0.83 vs. USD 0.84). The share fell by around 4% in afterhours trading; this was probably unavoidable in view of the high multiples. These results may lead investors to take their profits on Genentech and Roche. As far as Roche is concerned, we regard any weakness as a buy opportunity. We confirm our PLUS code.
AstraZeneca announced today that its lung cancer treatment product, Iressa, did not bring an increase in the survival rate of patients. This is good news for Roche (+ Genentech and OSI Pharma) because Tarceva now has an undeniable competitive advantage for the same indication, i.e. longer survival! AstraZeneca is a share to be avoided because the growth profile has been seriously jeopardized by several failures … We prefer Roche (PLUS).
Last Friday in Basel, we had the opportunity to meet several Life Cycle Managers. They are responsible for the development of a product throughout its life cycle, from the research phase to the extension of indications via the coordination of various clinical trials and the market launch. In our opinion, the strategy of Roche which focuses on innovation and value creation holds out very promising longterm prospects. We confirm our PLUS code.
We maintain our PLUS code for Roche because this company has one of the highest growth rates in the sector in Europe combined with low exposure to the generic risk. The weakness of sales in the first 9 months (due to small differentials at every level) does not call the company’s fundamentals into question.
Good news for Roche: Genentech published good results last night after the market had closed. Sales of Avastin (colorectal cancer) exceeded all expectations. In addition, better than expected profits create a stronger leverage effect on Roche’s own results. These figures therefore endorse our PLUS recommendation for Roche which has confirmed its strong presence in oncology, a therapeutic focus with good growth prospects and lower price pressure than elsewhere (cardiology and neurology). Roche will be publishing its sales figures on 14 October 2004.
Genentech has reported very good results: sales are above expectations and EPS in line with the consensus. Genentech has also revised its forecasts upwards. This looks good for Roche which owns 55.3% of the company. The momentum should continue because 2004 will still see many announcements about new pharmaceuticals in the course of development. PLUS code maintained.
Roche organised an information day about its new pharmaceutical pipeline which consists of 61 projects (NME = new molecular entities) with 6 options (including Basilea’s). The range and diversity of the new pharmaceuticals which are due for an early commercial launch confirm our PLUS opinion, despite the high valuation.
First quarter sales growth in Roche’s strategic sectors (pharmaceuticals and diagnostics) exceeded market expectations at 15% in local currency terms (14% in CHF) to reach CHF 7.55 billion. The consensus was CHF 7.3 billion. Roche has announced optimistic prospects for 2004: a “substantial increase” of its net profit in 2004 and faster growth of its strategic business activities than the market average. The operating margins on the pharmaceutical business should reach 26%. PLUS code maintained.
Excellent news for Roche: Avastin (colorectal cancer) has been approved sooner than expected in the USA for a wider range of indications and above all at a higher price than anticipated (USD 44,000 for 10 months treatment against USD 20,000). PLUS code maintained.
Today, Roche published its results for the year 2003. These are in line with market expectations. Sales of strategic products are up 11% to CHF 28.96 billion (+19% excluding FX). The operating profit rose 17% to 6.1 billion (+25% excluding FX). Despite a disappointingly low financial profit, we maintain our positive opinion because of the fundamentals. PLUS code confirmed.
Roche showed investors a promising portfolio and a wellendowed oncology pipeline. It is highly likely that in years to come the company will become a key player in this therapeutic area, with innovative drugs combined with diagnostics techniques which enable tumours to be better defined and therefore enable improved care strategies to be adopted. We maintain our plus code.
Because of these excellent results, we confirm our plus code. In our opinion, roche constitutes an excellent basic portfolio investment for several reasons: the group’s strategy (pharmaceuticals and diagnostics), new generation of products soon to be launched (raptiva, avastin…), low exposure to generics and good future profit growth. Futhermore, roche is likely to benefit from a series of significant new announcements.
The result published by Roche for the first half were better than expected by the market. The operating margin of the pharmaceuticals division is improving and the new launches have been successful. In parallel, Roche has acquired the origen technology in the diagnostics sector. We maintain our Plus code.
After two years of stagnation, Roche has returned to growth with several recently launched products (Pegasys, Fuzeon), others which are in the approval phase (Xolair, Raptiva, Bonviva) or have achieved spectacular results (Avastin). These drugs complete the company's mature portfolio and have given it a new lease of life. The continuous flow of news will support the share price for the next 12 to 18 months. We are changing our code from Minus to Plus.
Roche has published broadly in line with expectations, except for its net profit. Although its portfolio of equities and bonds has been "cleaned up" and unrealised losses written down, the group's fundamentals are still not attractive and growth leaves something to be desired. We maintain our Minus code.
Ranking No 12 worldwide in the pharmaceuticals field and with a dominant position in diagnostics, Roche belatedly decided to focus on its two main business areas following the sale in September 2002 of its vitamins and speciality chemicals division to the Dutch company DSM. This disposal will enable Roche to report more attractive margin figures. But it still lacks molecules with a strong potential in its product pipeline. Growth prospects therefore look limited.
On 3 September 2002, Roche announced the sale of its Vitamins and Fine Chemicals division to DSM at a price of EUR 2.25 billion (CHF 3.3 billion). DSM will be paying 0.93 x 2001 sales or 5.7x EBITDA 2001. This price is below the market expectations which had estimated a figure of 1.1 times 2001 sales. However, the announcement of this divestment is good news for Roche, which is becoming a pure pharmaceutical company and its margins and growth will probably be improved as a result. However, even though Roche is disposing of its Vitamins and Fine Chemicals Division, it may still have to pay further fines arising out of past lawsuits. We are maintaining our minus code for the following reasons because we are waiting for a real improvement of margins and a return to growth in the pharmaceutical division. We also have some concerns over the product pipeline which remains rather weak. An acquisition is therefore essential.
Yesterday, at its General Meeting, Roche announced its sales for the first three months of the year; as expected, the figures published (+5%) are not great. We maintain a negative opinion of the Roche dividend rights certificate, which has outperformed the market slightly this year because of unrealistic rumours about a merger with its rival Novartis.
This morning, Roche announced annual results for the year 2001 below market expectations; as usual, they are vitiated by many exceptional elements which make their interpretation difficult. For the year 2002, the management is banking on a growth of its pharmaceutical sales close to 10%. Not many new drugs will be introduced in 2002. We therefore maintain our negative opinion on the dividend rights certificate.
This morning Roche published its sales figures for the first 9 months of the year, in line with market expectations. Sales increased by 7% (+ 8% in local currencies), while pharmaceutical sales increased by 6% (+ 7% in local currencies). Despite its reasonable valuation, there are few new elements to support mediumterm growth. We are therefore revising our rating for this stock to reduce.
Today, Roche has published results for the first half of 2001 above market expectations; exceptional items nevertheless make a comparison with the results for last year difficult. Because of faster than anticipated pharmaceuticals growth and the initial effects of reorganization we repeat our buy recommendation for this share.
Roche today published mixed results for the year 2000; although net profit is in line with expectations, the growth of pharmaceutical business is somewhat disappointing, with sales in local currencies up by 1%. For the current trading year, the group is banking on growth in line with the market. On account of an attractive valuation, we are reiterating our buy recommendation.
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