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Following somewhat disappointing figures for Q1, the Spanish historic operator published better than expected results for Q2 2010, confirming the turnaround observed in Q4 2009, especially in the case of the situation on the domestic market. In H2, comparison bases will become distinctly more favourable and, even if some uncertainties remain, we believe that Telefonica has the ability to maintain its 2010 guidance. The completion of the Vivo operation has clarified the outlook and the news stream should be more favourable. PLUS code confirmed.
Numbers published for Q1 2010 by the Spanish historical operator proved somewhat disappointing, especially for the domestic results (EBITDA fell short of expectations), but the management has made reassuring forecasts for the second half when the bases for comparison will become more favourable. In the short term, the share is likely to remain volatile depending on Spanish macroeconomic news, the progress of the offer for Vivo and the reaction of PT, the 3G auctions in Germany and the MTRs in Spain and Germany. PLUS code unchanged. Attractive valuation.
The 2009 figures published by the Spanish operator are reassuring because they show operational improvements in some segments. Figures for the domestic market, the main uncertain factor in these results, reflected a slight improvement of the trend. The Latam zone for its part performed better than expected, while Europe is still adversely affected by the impact of regulations and an unstable macro environment.
The 2009 figures published by the Spanish historical operator are reassuring because they show operational improvements in some segments. Figures for the Spanish market, the main uncertain factor in this publication, do reflect a slight improvement of the underlying trends. The Latam zone for its part performed better than expected, while Europe is still adversely affected by the impact of regulations and a challenging macro environment. The group has defended its guidance (notably for the net profit per share and dividend). PLUS code unchanged.
The Spanish legacy operator released Q3 results which held no big surprises and were reassuring as they reconfirmed its 2009 outlook. All three of the group’s major operating regions are looking up: rumblings of recovery in the Spanish market, very good mobile performance in Latin America (although fixed lines weakened a bit), and recovery in Germany (02 subsidiary). The group is expecting growth to recover in Q4 (especially in Germany and the Czech Republic). Attractive valuation. PLUS code confirmed.
The Spanish operator recently confirmed its “stress test” guidance (EPS 2010e at EUR 2.10), a figure which is better than the consensus expectation (EUR 1.85) and includes up to EUR 1 billion of non-recurring items. Forecasts for 2008-2012 are also better than expected. The management announced its intention to pay shareholders a 2010 dividend of EUR 1.40 (+22%). News about M&As is also reassuring. PLUS code maintained.
At its meeting for investors, the Spanish operator confirmed its stress test guidance (EPS 2010e at EUR2.10). Significantly, the figure which was announced and is regarded as a minimum proved higher than the consensus expectation (EUR1.85); it includes up to EUR 1 billion by way of non-recurring items, which could prove to be a useful buffer. Forecasts for 2008-2012 are also above expectations. The management intends to pay shareholders a dividend of EUR 1.40 (+22%) in 2010. The comments made about M&A are also reassuring. PLUS code maintained.
Yesterday morning, the Spanish operator published results for the first half of 2009 in line with expectations, but still weak for the Mobile segment on a challenging Spanish market. Performance in the Latam zone was again strong, even though the effects of the economic slowdown are being felt, especially in Mexico. Prospects for 2009 were confirmed by the management, but doubts remain for 2010. Although short-term visibility remains limited (Spain, some Latam countries), the share valuation seems to reflect these elements in large measure. PLUS code maintained.
Yesterday morning, the Spanish operator published its results for Q1 2009. They are generally in line with expectations, but particularly weak for the mobile activity on a difficult Spanish market. Performance in the Latam zone proved as strong as ever with an improving situation in Brazil. Prospects for 2009 were confirmed by the management (high CF level maintained, with very flexible cost management). Although visibility continues to be restricted to CT (Spain, some Latam countries), the share valuation seems to reflect these factors in large measure. PLUS code maintained.
Despite the worsening economic environment on its home market and growing monetary risks in some Latin American countries, Telefónica still benefits from prudent management based on robust fundamentals which ensure good long term visibility. Growth prospects remain consistent and diversified. The balance sheet is robust and the free cash flow yield (2008-2010) better than 10%. Finally, the valuation is attractive. PLUS code maintained.
The Spanish operator has published very satisfactory annual results for 2008, slightly better than expected and reassuring in the difficult Spanish economic environment. The management remains confident over the outlook, noting the relative stability (moderate fall of 0.9%) of domestic sales in Q4 and the continuation of a positive trend in Brazil in Q1 2009. The outlook for 2009 and 2010 is therefore confirmed. The group is focussing on the maintenance of a high cash flow level; this will involve much lower Capex (-EUR 900 million expected in 2009). PLUS code maintained.
The Spanish operator has published solid results for the first nine months; figures for domestic landline operations are reassuring while the Mobile business activity is more sensitive to the sluggish economic environment; in the other zones: strong contribution by Brazil, Mexico and Peru, as well as Argentina and Venezuela; stable results in the UK; improvement in Germany). The management remains optimistic over results for the year as a whole. 2008 prospects confirmed for all three divisions (Spain, Latin America, O2 Europe). PLUS code.
Despite the worsening economic environment on its home market and growing monetary risks in some Latin American countries, Telefónica still benefits from a fairly defensive profile with good visibility and strong fundamentals. Growth prospects remain consistent and diversified. The balance sheet is robust and the free cash flow yield (2008-2010) better than 10%. Finally, the valuation is attractive. PLUS code maintained.
The Spanish operator has published robust quarterly results; performance is reassuring on the domestic side (landline and above all mobile) which is sensitive to the sluggish economic environment, and also in the other zones (good contribution from Mexico, Venezuela and Brazil; stabilisation in the UK, improvement in Germany, but downturn in Ireland). Comments by the management are reassuring about performance for the whole year. 2008 prospects are confirmed for the three divisions (Spain, Latin America, O2 Europe). PLUS code maintained.
Q1 2008 results of the Telefonica group are at the higher end of expectations, with a pleasant surprise on the domestic market (success in the broadband, Pay TV and mobile telephone segments). Latin American business activities remain on a very positive trend; growth has even gained momentum in mobile access and broadband. Excluding Spain, O2 activities have been strong in the UK, despite the fall of the GBP; there has also been a distinct recovery in Germany and strong growth in the Czech Republic. PLUS code confirmed.
Among the European telecom operators, Telefónica probably offers the finest asset portfolio and the most dynamic growth profile. Its attractive valuation (PER, dividend), the potential of the Latin American zone, a strong balance sheet, sustained cash flow generation, together with an experienced and acknowledged management, have led us to introduce this new recommendation with a PLUS code.
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