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Tullow published half-yearly results slightly above expectations and revised its production forecast upwards for 2010. The Jubilee field is due to come on stream at end 2010, modifying the company’s profile. The exploration program remains intensive and promising at a 6 months to 1 year time horizon. There is still potential despite the delay announced in the disposal of Ugandan blocks. PLUS-R confirmed.
The Ugandan authorities have given their conditional agreement to the sale by Heritage of its blocks to Tullow. Tullow has permission to assign two-thirds of the Ugandan assets to CNOOC and Total. Although the political and project risks remain, the path to development of the country’s oil resources is now wide open. Tullow should be in a net cash position at the end of 2010 and is strengthening its profile as a producer. PLUS-R code confirmed.
The scale of Tullow Oil’s operations has changed in the past few years with an exploratory drilling success rate of nearly 80%. The discovered reserves will soon come on stream or be monetized, while the exploration program remains strong; the share price has not fully discounted this factor.
Tullow published figures for 2009 in line with the guidance and consensus. The success rate of exploratory oil drilling stood at 87% and the reserves renewal rate at 400%. The 2010 prospecting campaign is substantial and should release more value. With a strengthened balance sheet, the planned disposal of Ugandan assets and the future cash flow which will be generated when Jubilee comes on stream, the group is ready for the next development phase. PLUS-R code confirmed.
Tullow reported an exceptional success rate in 2009 for its drilling projects and is on track to bring the Jubilee field on stream at end 2010. New equity capital worth over £900 million was easily placed yesterday, indicating strong market demand. The main aim of this increase is to step up the development program, with more than 30 drilling sites in 2010. The current share price reflects a long-term barrel price of $60-65 and a moderate success rate for the drilling program. CNOOC and Total are credible partners to take over the Heritage blocks in Uganda. This is the only uncertain factor. We are reverting to a PLUS-R code.
The scale of Tullow Oil’s operations has changed in the past few years with the discovery of the huge Jubilee field in Ghana, which should enable production to be doubled by 2012. The share price does not fully reflect the potential of discoveries and higher reserves at a 6-12 months time horizon. The stock recently became more speculative. We are thus changing our rating to PLUS-R.
The scale of Tullow Oil’s operations has changed in the past few years with the discovery of the huge Jubilee field in Ghana, which should enable production to be doubled by 2012. The share price reflects current production and development, but does not fully reflect the potential of discoveries and higher reserves at a 6-12 months time horizon.
Tullow has published better than expected results for the 1st half of 2009. Production is in line with forecasts. The Jubilee production project is going ahead as planned. The definitive results for Ngassa are awaited in a few weeks time. New discovery and development potentials are emerging. Even if the potential for the next 6 months is lower than that of the past 6 months, this potential does exist. We are reverting to our PLUS code.
2008 results published by Tullow are well above those for 2007, but still fall short of expectations. The financing plan has been adopted, the balance sheet is robust and cash flow guaranteed. This will enable the exploration program to be developed further and the Jubilee field to come on stream. The investment argument therefore remains unchanged, especially after the announcement two days ago of the successful drilling at Tweneboa (Ghana). PLUS code confirmed.
The scale of Tullow Oil’s operations has changed in the past few years with the discovery of the huge Jubilee field in Ghana, which should enable production to be doubled by 2012. The share price reflects current production and development, but makes only marginal allowance for the potential of new discoveries and higher reserves; this potential is considerable at a 12 months horizon.
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