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The exceptional Q2 results clearly validate the upward revision of the 2010 guidance on 13 July. The Automobile division in particular achieved a margin of 9.6%, way ahead of expectations (6%). On the basis of the performance achieved in H1, and in view of the intact potential (new range, US market recovery, boom in China, $ exchange rate, cost-cutting plan), the best is yet to come for BMW (volumes, margins and EPS). Not only will the revised forecasts make its valuation even more attractive, the initially ambitious 8/10% margin target for the 2012 horizon now seems really credible! PLUS code confirmed.
The good Q1 2010 results in the transitional phase for its 5 series are promising. The exposure of BMW to the recovery of the US cycle (23% of sales), improvement of its product mix (series 5 effect), faster renewal of its range, recovery of residual values and an unprecedented cost-cutting plan (€6 billion) are strong points in its favour for 2010/11.
Despite the crisis in car markets and the transitional period for its product cycle, BMW has fared better than its competitors in 2009: its financial results reflect this achievement. Apart from an attractive valuation, from 2010 onwards BMW will benefit from the combined effects of the renewal of 70% of its range, recovery of the markets (US and Europe) and unprecedented cost -cutting efforts (€6 billion).
T3 results were slightly short of over-ambitious consensus expectations as H2 2009 is a transitional period with the renewal of major models from which BMW will benefit in 2010. But the results are robust against the background of recession and demand sustained by scrappage premiums. Financial services are back on a sound footing (US residual values rising) and BMW’s potential is still intact: recovery prospects (volumes, margins and earnings per share) for the next 2 years and the valuation are particularly attractive. PLUS code confirmed.
Q2 results were better than expected in every respect: sales €12.97 billion vs €12.68 billion; EBIT €169 million vs €42million. BMW even achieved the exploit of generating €1 billion in operating cash flow under extreme market conditions (downturn in the USA, scrappage premiums in Europe, ageing vehicle range). Today the share has been hit by profit taking after gaining 30% in three weeks. Its potential remains intact: low valuation and prospects of a strong recovery (volumes, margins and profit per share) in 2010-11. PLUS code confirmed.
2009 is a year of transition (product cycle), but BMW will fare better than competitors in the present economic turmoil (Q1 results prove this). Unprecedented cost-cutting efforts (€6 billion), a recovery in car demand, the forthcoming renewal of 70% of its model range, a strong balance sheet (€9.2 bn cash) and an attractive valuation lend weight to our PLUS code on the share.
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