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TUI Travel avoided the pitfalls of the crisis thanks to synergies with First Choice, its positioning in high growth niche markets, aggressive capacity reductions and increased pricing power in relation to hoteliers. The low price (CB issue/impact of the ash cloud) gives this share a particularly attractive valuation and represents a buy opportunity ahead of the recovery of bookings for the summer season and beyond.
Publication of the Q1 2010 results confirms the improved trend in the tour operating industry with an upturn of winter bookings and particularly encouraging numbers for the 2010 summer season. Despite an operating loss in Q1 linked to capacity adjustment, the TUI management has confirmed its guidance for H1 2010 which is reassuring and strengthens our expectations of a significant improvement of profitability from Q2 onwards. We are confirming our Plus code for TUI Travel. It remains our favourite investment vehicle to benefit from the upturn in the tourism sector.
TUI Travel avoided the pitfalls of the crisis thanks to restructuring through the merger with First Choice, aggressive reduction of capacities and increased pricing power in relation to hoteliers. The outsourcing of synergies with First Choice and its positioning on profitable high growth niches are undeniable assets, while the “mass market” activity will benefit from any cyclical upturn.
Our positive rating on TUI Travel is derived from its various qualities to avoid the pitfalls of the crisis: 1/aggressive range/capacity reductions; 2/synergies and productivity gains with First Choice; 3/strong pricing power (hotel, air travel); 4/niche activities with strong growth and profitability. The risk of type A flu is fading while TUI should benefit from any cyclical recovery.
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