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Reed Elsevier published results for H1 2010 slightly above consensus expectations (not very high), in terms both of sales and of Ebit. Although the trend is only improving gradually, three key messages do emerge from this publication: 1. On the LexisNexis side, the slowdown of income is less pronounced. 2. Pressure for the reduction of academic budgets seems to be easing in the STM division (Elsevier). 3. Cyclical activities (RBI, Exhibitions) are experiencing a growth revival which will continue into 2011. PLUS code confirmed.
After a difficult 2009 (negative organic growth, managerial uncertainties, equity capital increase), 2010 must be regarded as a transitional year. The efforts which LexisNexis is obliged to make on the US “Legal” market in face of tough competition are the main feature of this phase of ongoing change. Elsevier is now in a better competitive position, while Reed Exhibitions and RBI will benefit from more favourable base effects.
Reed Elsevier has published 2009 results which reflect investors’ (rather low) expectations: in line for sales, but rather better in terms of the operating result. The first public appearance of the new CEO reassured the market somewhat because the group is now clearly in firm hands, even though the route map is still not clear. Guidance for 2010 suggests that H1 is set to remain difficult before a significant improvement sets in. The valuation remains attractive. PLUS code maintained.
After a particularly difficult year 2009 (negative organic growth, managerial uncertainties, capital increase) the group is positioned for re-rating in 2010 led by LexisNexis (development of risk analysis, a fast growing segment), Elsevier (better competitive position) and efforts to divest its most cyclical activities. The group should benefit from a recovery of the dollar. New PLUS code.
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