Monday Report


In the United States, the statistics published were rather disappointing. Homebuilders’ confidence (NAHB) fell back in September, from 50 to 45, much more than expected. The fall in housing starts in August came as a negative surprise (-11.3% m/m), but was partly offset by the rebound in building permits (+6.9%). The manufacturing PMI rose slightly (from 47.9 to 48.9) in September, more than expected, but it remains weak, and its services counterpart disappointed, falling from 50.5 to 50.2. In the eurozone, household confidence fell more than expected in September (from -16 to -17.8). The manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 43.4, while the services PMI rose (from 47.9 to 48.4), although it remained in contraction territory.

Planetary Limits

In its “Global Hydrogen Review 2023”, the International Energy Agency notes that more than 40 countries have announced hydrogen strategies and that installed electrolyser capacity will rise from 700 MW at the end of 2022 to more than 2,000 MW at the end of 2023 (half of which will be in China). However, the deployment of hydrogen is likely to be held back by rising costs and financing, while the target capacity for 2030 is 430 GW: c. x200 vs end 2023e - a figure that is 75% higher than in the Global Hydrogen Review 2022.


The Fed, the SNB and the Bank of England all paused in their monetary tightening last week, but are not ruling out further hikes at a later date. As a result, 10-year sovereign interest rates are rising (USD +10bp; EUR: +6bp) and equities are falling (US: -3.0%; Europe: -1.9% and emerging markets: -2.1%). This risk aversion is reflected in the dollar’s appreciation (USD index: +0.2%). Gold is unchanged and oil is down very slightly (-0.8%). Coming up this week: house prices (FHFA / S&P CoreLogic), household confidence, durable goods orders, PCE deflator and leading economic indicators (Chicago, Philadelphia, Dallas and Richmond) in the United States; EC confidence indicators (economy, industry and services), M3 growth and inflation in the eurozone.

Swiss Market

Coming up this week: Consensus Forecast (KOF), economic forecasts (KOF), September Economic Barometer (KOF) and the volume of intervention on the currency markets in Q2 (SNB). The following companies are due to release results: Helvetia, Obseva, Airesis, Zwahlen and Mayr, CI Com and Wisekey.


ACTIVISION (Satellites): The closing approval process for the Activision-Microsoft deal is nearing completion. Following acceptance by the European Union, the US judge’s decision against the FTC and now the UK, which has responded positively to the solutions proposed by Microsoft, the spread between Microsoft’s purchase price (USD 95) and the current price (USD 94) has been reduced. We are removing Activision from our Satellites – Cross assets recommendation.
ASSA ABLOY (Core Holdings) has acquired the Peruvian door locking systems specialist Forte, with 340 employees and turnover equivalent to c. SEK 200 mio p.a., i.e. c. 0.2% of group turnover.
ASTRAZENECA (Core Holdings): Successful clinical trial of Dato-DXd (antibody-drug conjugate) as a last-line treatment for HR+/HER2-low or negative breast cancer. Dato-DXd is being developed jointly with Daiichi Sankyo and is one of the Group’s growth drivers. This news is all the more positive in that it comes after a more mixed announcement of its success in lung cancer at the beginning of July. The next step will be the presentation of data in lung cancer on 21-22 Oct.


As expected, the Fed left its key rate unchanged, while the governors’ rate expectations (DOTS) were significantly revised upwards for 2024 (+50bp @5.125%) and 2025 (+50bp @3.875). The gap with market expectations for next year (4.60%) has pushed rates up along the curve (2Y +8bp/10Y +10bp). In Europe, although September’s PMIs were once again disappointing and point to a slowdown in the economy, EU rates followed the US trend with a bear steepening of the curves (Bund 2Y +4bp/Bund 10Y +6bp).

Sentiment of traders

Stock markets
The Fed’s hawkish status quo tactic on Wednesday failed to convince equity markets. If we add to this a possible US administration shutdown on Saturday, dead crosses in the pipeline for leading European indices and an S&P that seems to be approaching its lows, the week could be rather complicated.
Following last week’s FED speech, the dollar remains supported at €/$ 1.0640 and $/CHF 0.9100. We expect the following ranges: €/$ 1.0516-1.0809 and $/CHF 0.8900-0.9150. The SNB’s unexpected pause has caused the CHF to correct slightly to €/CHF 0.9680 sup. 0.9515 res. 0.9840. The £ falls to £/$ 1.2245 sup. 1.2011 res. 1.2446. Gold oz is at $1924/oz, sup. 1901 and res. 1947.

Today’s graph


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