Monday Report

Economy

The statistics published in the United States were mixed. While the ISM manufacturing index disappointed with a fall from 49.2 to 48.7 (vs. 49.5 expected) in May, the services index was a pleasant surprise, rebounding from 49.4 to 53.8 (vs. 51 expected). Job creation (+272,000) exceeded expectations (180,000), but the unemployment rate rose from 3.9 to 4% in May. The acceleration in hourly wages to +4.1% y/y will not reassure the Fed. In the eurozone, retail sales contracted more than expected (-0.5% m/m vs -0.3% est.) in April and Q1 GDP growth is confirmed at +0.3% q/q. Finally, in China, the manufacturing and services PMIs rose more than expected, from 51.4 to 51.7 and from 52.5 to 54 respectively in May. International trade was surprisingly buoyant in May (exports: +7.6% y/y and imports: +1.8% y/y).

Planetary Limits

According to the International Energy Agency's "World Energy Investment Report", China will be the leading investor in green energy in 2024, with more than $600 billion, or 3.7 times its investment in fossil fuels, ahead of Europe with more than $400 billion (or 5.5 times its investment in fossil fuels) and the United States with more than $300 billion, the leading investor in fossil fuels (nearly $300 billion).

Markets

The ECB's decision to cut interest rates was expected and its impact was moderate on 10-year sovereign yields (USD: -5bp; EUR: -4bp). Equities benefited (US: +1.3%; Europe: +1%; emerging markets: +2.3%). The USD index appreciated moderately (+0.2%), penalizing gold (-0.7%) and oil prices fell by 2.6% following OPEC's announcements. The results of the European elections and the announcement of early parliamentary elections in France could weigh on European assets. Coming up this week: consumer and producer price indices, Fed meeting, confidence of SMEs (NFIB index) and households (Univ. of Michigan) in the United States; Sentix investor confidence, industrial production and trade balance in the eurozone; consumer and producer price indices in China.

Swiss Market

Coming up this week: consumer sentiment in May (Seco), air traffic statistics for May (Flughafen Zürich), production-import price index for May (FSO) and summer holiday forecasts for 2024 (Switzerland Tourism). Valiant will present its new strategy.

Equities

ADOBE (Core Holdings) will publish its Q2 results on 13 June. The stock has largely underperformed since the start of the year (-19%), but the group will need to show a return to sales growth in the second half to allow a re-rating (Adobe trades at a PE fwd of 24x while the software sector trades at 31x).

ASML (Satellite) has received orders for more than a dozen High NA EUV machines. The CFO said that commercial negotiations with TSMC were nearing completion, and that major orders for 2nm technology should start to arrive between the second and third quarters of 2024. TSMC, Intel, SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron will be the main clients adopting this new machine.

ASTRAZENECA (Core Holdings) confirms its success in oncology by presenting a number of clinical results at ASCO, including: 1/ Enhertu in second-line hormone-positive, low HER2-expressing breast cancer (HR+/HER2 low-ultra low) showed a 37% improvement in progression-free survival (PFS); 2/ Tagrisso in EGFR-mutated, unresectable, stage III non-small cell lung cancer showed an 84% improvement in PFS, resulting in another ‘standing ovation’ for AstraZeneca (a rare occurrence).

Bonds

US employment data was mixed, with a rising unemployment rate and higher-than-expected job creation (272k vs 180k). Against a backdrop of high interest rate volatility, the 10Y hit a low of 4.27% before settling at 4.43% (-6bp). Ahead of the Fed meeting on Wednesday, the market is expecting the first rate cut to come in December. In Europe, as expected, the ECB cut its key rate by 25bp to 3.75%. EU yields had incorporated the move and ended slightly lower (10Y Bund -4bp/BTP -4bp), driven more by US data.

Sentiment of traders

Stock markets

After stronger-than-expected job creation in the US, the week began in the red in Europe. We will be awaiting key macro figures from the US (CPI, PPI) and the FOMC meeting on Wednesday (no change). Apple is expected to present new products today at its annual conference. Volatility is likely to be high.

Currencies

Good US employment figures have supported the dollar, which is trading this morning at $/CHF 0.8975, sup. 0.8820 res. 0.9150. The rise in power of far-right parties in France and Germany and the dissolution of the National Assembly by E.Macron have strongly penalized the € against the major currencies: €/$ 1.0758 €/CHF 0.9660, our ranges: €/$ sup. 1.0649 res. 1.0910 €/CHF sup. 0.9520 res. 0.9790. The pound is down at 1.2715 sup. 1.2515 res. 1.2860. Gold corrects to $2295/oz, sup. 2285 res. 2368.

Today’s graph

Performances

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A brief recap of the market’s past week, by Bordier Singapore
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A brief recap of the market’s past week, by Bordier Singapore

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