{"id":25556,"date":"2025-10-13T10:58:49","date_gmt":"2025-10-13T09:58:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/?p=25556"},"modified":"2025-10-27T18:01:22","modified_gmt":"2025-10-27T17:01:22","slug":"monday-report-en-13102025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/monday-report-en-13102025\/","title":{"rendered":"Monday Report"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe title=\"Monday Report of 13 October 2025\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/YwLS--gq128?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Economy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The prolonged federal government shutdown is disrupting the publication of certain economic statistics in the United States. Consumer confidence, as measured by the University of Michigan, fell very slightly (from 55.1 to 55) in October. In the eurozone, investor confidence (Sentix) recovered more than expected in October (from -9.2 to -5.4 vs. -7.7 est.). After contracting in the previous month, retail sales rose in line with expectations (+0.1% m\/m; +1% y\/y) in August. In China, foreign exchange reserves were, unsurprisingly, fairly stable at USD 3,338 billion. Exports (+8.3% y\/y vs +6.6% est.) and imports (+7.4% y\/y vs +2% y\/y) rebounded more than expected in September. However, this good news should be put into perspective, as it is partly due to technical reasons (number of working days).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group boxed background-light\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Planetary Boundaries<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>According to a report by the Ember think tank, global solar power production increased by nearly a third year-on-year in the first half of 2025, covering 83% of the global increase in electricity demand; wind power increased by just over 7%. As a result, global renewable electricity production exceeded that from coal combustion for the first time.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full wider offeset-top\"><img alt=\"\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4375\" style=\"object-fit:cover\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The ongoing US government shutdown and Donald Trump\u2019s threat to China (before adopting a more conciliatory tone over the weekend) to increase tariffs by 100% are driving up volatility. Equities fell sharply in the US (-2.4%), less so in Europe (-1.1%) and emerging markets (-0.6%) or Switzerland (-0.2%). Sovereign yields fell by around 7bp in USD and EUR, and the dollar appreciated by 1.3% (dollar index). Gold was unaffected by the dollar\u2019s rebound and benefited from renewed risk aversion to rise a further 3.3%, while oil prices fell 2.7%. To watch this week: SME confidence (NFIB index), producer and consumer price indices, retail sales, industrial production, housing starts and building permits in the United States; industrial production and trade balance in the eurozone; consumer price index in China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group boxed background-light\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Swiss Market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Coming up this week: September production and import prices (FSO), September accommodation statistics (FSO) and autumn economic forecasts (SECO).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The following companies will publish their figures: Tecan, Flughafen Z\u00fcrich, Bossard, Givaudan, Cicor, Sulzer, Ems-Chemie, VAT Group, ABB, DocMorris, Kuros, Nestl\u00e9 and Comet.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full wider offeset-top\"><img alt=\"\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4383\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Equities<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-size: revert; color: initial;\"><strong>AIRBUS <\/strong>(Satellite) delivered 73 aircrafts in September, for a total of 507 over nine months, compared with 497 in 2024. The figure increases the likelihood of reaching the annual target of 820. Positive.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-size: revert; color: initial;\"><strong>ARYZTA <\/strong>announced the immediate departure of its CEO Michael Schai, who will be replaced by Chairman Urs Jordi. EBITDA for 2025 has been lowered to \u20ac300 million (vs \u20ac330 million) due to cost overruns and operational delays. This new warning, combined with reduced visibility and managerial instability, calls into question the recovery trajectory: we are removing Aryzta from our Swiss convictions list.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-size: revert; color: initial;\"><strong>ASTRAZENECA <\/strong>(Core Holding) is the second pharmaceutical company to reach an agreement with the Trump administration. The content is in line with that agreed by Pfizer, including $50 billion in investments over five years in production capacity and R&amp;D; direct sales to patients in the field of chronic diseases, with discounts of up to 80%; and a three-year grace period during which the company will not be subject to S232 tariffs.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-size: revert; color: initial;\">We are removing <strong>MICRON TECHNOLOGY <\/strong>(Satellite) from our lists after reaching the target of our bullish scenario at USD 200. Although the price dynamics for DRAM and HBM memory remain favourable, the market has already priced in a significant portion of expected sales through 2026. In this context, the potential for short-term upside appears limited.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group boxed background-light\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bonds<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In the US, the 10-year yield fell 9 bp over the week after tensions with China escalated. With the shutdown, the only notable release was the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, which was above expectations but down sequentially. In Europe, the 10-year OAT also lost 9 bp after S. Lecornu was reappointed as Prime Minister, and the 10-year Bund lost 5 bp. This week, the market will be watching developments in US-China tensions and the shutdown closely.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full wider offeset-top\"><img alt=\"\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-3.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4388\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sentiment of traders<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Stock markets<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets recovered after Friday\u2019s sell-off triggered by the resumption of the Sino-American trade war, with Trump leaving the door open on Sunday. On the macro front, there is still no news, with the US government remaining shut down. In the eurozone, we will have the ZEW and final CPI figures. The first quarterly results will be released by US banks, as well as Nestl\u00e9, LVMH and ASML.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Currencies<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Donald Trump\u2019s statements against China at the end of the week abruptly reversed the upward trend of the USD. This morning, it is consolidating around \u20ac\/$ 1.1606, $\/CHF 0.8020 and $\/JPY 152.2. Currency traders will be watching developments in these trade tensions closely. Another setback for the newly appointed French government would weigh on the single currency. We remain negative on the euro in the short term, with our ranges at \u20ac\/$ 1.15-1.17 and \u20ac\/CHF 0.9250-0.9355. The pound is consolidating at \u00a3\/$ 1.3340, above 1.3270. Gold continues to rise to $4071\/oz, above 3957, resistance 4120.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today\u2019s graph<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"717\" height=\"436\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/graphPourSite-1.jpg\" alt=\"US Consumer Confidence Trends 2016-2025 Graph\" class=\"wp-image-25636\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/graphPourSite-1.jpg 717w, https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/graphPourSite-1-300x182.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 717px) 100vw, 717px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Performances<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"914\" height=\"538\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/perfANG-pour-site-1.jpg\" alt=\"Financial data table for October 2025 markets.\" class=\"wp-image-25649\" style=\"width:823px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/perfANG-pour-site-1.jpg 914w, https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/perfANG-pour-site-1-300x177.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/perfANG-pour-site-1-768x452.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 914px) 100vw, 914px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">This document has been issued for information purposes and is exclusively supplied by Bordier &amp; Cie SCmA in the framework of an existing contractual relationship with the recipient of this document. The views and opinions contained in it are those of Bordier &amp; Cie SCmA. Its contents may not be reproduced or redistributed by unauthorized persons. The user will be held liable for any unauthorized reproduction or circulation of this document, which may give rise to legal proceedings. All the information contained in it is provided for information only and should in no way be taken as investment, legal or tax advice provided to third parties. Furthermore, it is emphasized that the provisions of our legal information page are fully applicable to this document and namely provisions concerning the restrictions arising from different national laws and regulations. Consequently, Bordier Bank does namely not provide any investment services or advice to \u201cUS persons\u201d as defined by the Securities and Exchange Commission rules. Furthermore, the information on our website \u2013 including the present document \u2013 is by no mean directed to such persons or entities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Read the latest weekly report on the financial sectors and financial market, by Bordier Switzerland<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":28,"featured_media":15633,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[19,134],"tags":[132],"news_country":[13],"news_language":[38],"class_list":["post-25556","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights","category-monday-report","tag-monday-report","news_country-switzerland","news_language-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25556","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/28"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25556"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25556\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25687,"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25556\/revisions\/25687"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15633"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25556"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25556"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25556"},{"taxonomy":"news_country","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news_country?post=25556"},{"taxonomy":"news_language","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news_language?post=25556"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}