{"id":26594,"date":"2025-12-08T10:17:46","date_gmt":"2025-12-08T09:17:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/?p=26594"},"modified":"2026-03-30T04:06:56","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T03:06:56","slug":"global-financial-outlook-a-world-balancing-on-slower-growth-and-rising-debt-risks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/global-financial-outlook-a-world-balancing-on-slower-growth-and-rising-debt-risks\/","title":{"rendered":"Global Financial Outlook: A world balancing on slower growth and rising debt risks"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"26594\" class=\"elementor elementor-26594\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"has_ae_slider elementor-element elementor-element-8a9542e e-flex e-con-boxed ae-bg-gallery-type-default e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"8a9542e\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e5ec2ba elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"e5ec2ba\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h5 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">\/ Monthly Market Update  - <em>December 2025<\/em><\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5aea53f elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"5aea53f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h1 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Global Financial Outlook: A world balancing on <em>slower<\/em> growth and <em>rising<\/em> debt risks<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f0141ae elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"f0141ae\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h5 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><em><b>\u201cIt's good until it's not, it works until it doesn't.\u201d <\/em><\/b><br>\n\n<p>- Barbara Ann Webber, a former Credit and Financial Analyst, March 2018. <\/p><\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9ce1887 btn-red icon-right-arrow bg-grey elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"9ce1887\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/A-World-That-is-Stable-Until-It-Isnt.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Download pdf<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"has_ae_slider elementor-element elementor-element-8bb2ceb e-con-full e-flex ae-bg-gallery-type-default e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"8bb2ceb\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"has_ae_slider elementor-element elementor-element-070d46f e-con-full elementor-hidden-mobile e-flex ae-bg-gallery-type-default e-con e-child\" data-id=\"070d46f\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ab25fb7 elementor-toc--minimized-on-tablet elementor-widget elementor-widget-table-of-contents\" data-id=\"ab25fb7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;headings_by_tags&quot;:[&quot;h3&quot;],&quot;exclude_headings_by_selector&quot;:[],&quot;marker_view&quot;:&quot;bullets&quot;,&quot;icon&quot;:{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;library&quot;:&quot;&quot;},&quot;no_headings_message&quot;:&quot;No headings were found on this page.&quot;,&quot;sticky&quot;:&quot;top&quot;,&quot;sticky_on&quot;:[&quot;desktop&quot;,&quot;tablet&quot;],&quot;sticky_offset&quot;:80,&quot;sticky_parent&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;minimize_box&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;minimized_on&quot;:&quot;tablet&quot;,&quot;hierarchical_view&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;min_height&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;min_height_widescreen&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;min_height_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;min_height_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;sticky_effects_offset&quot;:0,&quot;sticky_anchor_link_offset&quot;:0}\" data-widget_type=\"table-of-contents.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toc__header\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<h4 class=\"elementor-toc__header-title\">\n\t\t\t\tTable of Contents\t\t\t<\/h4>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toc__toggle-button elementor-toc__toggle-button--expand\" role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-controls=\"elementor-toc__ab25fb7\" aria-expanded=\"true\" aria-label=\"Ouvrir la table des mati\u00e8res\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-chevron-down\" viewBox=\"0 0 448 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M207.029 381.476L12.686 187.132c-9.373-9.373-9.373-24.569 0-33.941l22.667-22.667c9.357-9.357 24.522-9.375 33.901-.04L224 284.505l154.745-154.021c9.379-9.335 24.544-9.317 33.901.04l22.667 22.667c9.373 9.373 9.373 24.569 0 33.941L240.971 381.476c-9.373 9.372-24.569 9.372-33.942 0z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toc__toggle-button elementor-toc__toggle-button--collapse\" role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-controls=\"elementor-toc__ab25fb7\" aria-expanded=\"true\" aria-label=\"Fermer la table des mati\u00e8res\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-chevron-up\" viewBox=\"0 0 448 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M240.971 130.524l194.343 194.343c9.373 9.373 9.373 24.569 0 33.941l-22.667 22.667c-9.357 9.357-24.522 9.375-33.901.04L224 227.495 69.255 381.516c-9.379 9.335-24.544 9.317-33.901-.04l-22.667-22.667c-9.373-9.373-9.373-24.569 0-33.941L207.03 130.525c9.372-9.373 24.568-9.373 33.941-.001z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-toc__ab25fb7\" class=\"elementor-toc__body\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toc__spinner-container\">\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"elementor-toc__spinner eicon-animation-spin e-font-icon-svg e-eicon-loading\" aria-hidden=\"true\" viewBox=\"0 0 1000 1000\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M500 975V858C696 858 858 696 858 500S696 142 500 142 142 304 142 500H25C25 237 238 25 500 25S975 237 975 500 763 975 500 975Z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"has_ae_slider elementor-element elementor-element-bd2e846 e-con-full e-flex ae-bg-gallery-type-default e-con e-child\" data-id=\"bd2e846\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5621b7d elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"5621b7d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Insights<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-eff1994 elementor-hidden-widescreen elementor-hidden-desktop elementor-hidden-tablet elementor-hidden-mobile elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"eff1994\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Insights<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-aaeb5b4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"aaeb5b4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Every day, headlines are filled with unsettling news. From market volatility and economic uncertainty to geopolitical tensions and rising interest rates, these stories often cast a shadow over decision-making. While most investors are aware of these risks, it\u2019s common to turn a blind eye and simply hope things will improve.<\/p><p>Here, we\u2019re taking a different approach. Rather than relying on hope or wishful thinking, we\u2019re confronting these concerns directly.<\/p><p>The global economy is entering a period defined by slower growth, higher financial-stability risks from hyperscalers and increasingly difficult policy trade-offs.<\/p><p>After several years of pandemic-driven volatility, supply chain shocks, inflation flare-ups and aggressive monetary tightening, 2025 as we know it, has shaped up to be at a transitional but fragile phase. The headline concern today is not an imminent crisis or crash per se, but a troubling mix of subdued global growth, elevated public &amp; private debt and rising leverage in critical parts of the financial system that could magnify any future shock.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2fdd4af elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"2fdd4af\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">1. Global growth is losing momentum<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cec39a6 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"cec39a6\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Most major forecasts now predict that global GDP growth will slow to one of its weakest levels outside major crisis years. The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) expects growth to slow to 2.7% to 2.9% this year. Advanced economies are cooling, emerging markets are facing softer external demand amidst fluctuating commodities prices. Trade tensions continue to suppress cross-border investment and confidence. Although not (yet) recessionary, it is persistent enough to reduce economies\u2019 buffers against unexpected shocks.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f05b36f elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"f05b36f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">2. Debt levels are becoming a structural risk<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-242ddf7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"242ddf7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tPublic-debt ratios across many countries are now near historic highs. Years of (some wasteful) pandemic spending, slower growth and higher interest rates mean governments are spending significantly more just to service existing debt, let alone new ones in the pipeline. For many, debtservice costs are becoming the fastest growing item in the national budget! High debt is not inherently a crisis trigger but becomes dangerous when combined with weaker growth, rising refinancing costs, lower investor appetite for longer duration bonds and, of course, policy uncertainty.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-323749f elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"323749f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">3. Financial market vulnerabilities are quietly building<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8d5e538 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"8d5e538\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tWhere beneath the surface of global markets, instability risks are increasing particularly in non-bank financial institutions. Many of these players operate with far less transparency than traditional banks. Sound familiar? High leverage in the debt markets particularly through derivatives and leveraged relative value strategies remains worrisome. The risk is not necessarily that these institutions will fail but that forced deleveraging could trigger market swings large enough to spill over into the broader economy\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8502bab elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8502bab\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">4. Policy trade-offs are becoming increasingly uncomfortable<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ed8fa13 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"ed8fa13\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Central banks and indeed governments now face one of the most complicated policy environments in years:<\/p><ul><li>Inflation is lower but not fully subdued<\/li><li>Growth is weakening and labour especially in the US, is worsening but not enough to justify aggressive stimulus<\/li><li>Public debt is high, limiting fiscal space<\/li><li>Financial risks are rising, yet tighter regulation may itself create instability in the short term.<\/li><\/ul><p>This means the margin for policy missteps is narrowing.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c591c42 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"c591c42\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">5. Markets may be entering a \u201crepricing phase\u201d<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f45574d elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"f45574d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Equities and bond markets have enjoyed post 2022, long periods of optimism, supported by expectations of falling inflation, future rate cuts and soft-landing scenarios. But as the situation softens and debt-related risks become more visible, markets may begin to reassess valuations. We think the following situations would trigger a repricing:<\/p><ul><li>A sharp move in global bond yields<\/li><li>A shock, geopolitical or otherwise, affecting energy (electricity, oil etc) or trade flows<\/li><li>A credit event involving a highly leveraged entity or corporate borrower<\/li><li>An unexpected policy surprise from a major central bank.<\/li><\/ul><p>We have seen some of the above but not all simultaneously, but that is not to say it won\u2019t happen. The signs of the above are abound already. So, what\u2028 should we watch for now? The following indicators matter most over the next 12 months:<\/p><ul><li>Debt-service ratios and refinancing needs across major economies<\/li><li>Leverage and liquidity conditions in bond markets Corporate-credit spreads which is a leading indicator of stress<\/li><li>Central bank communication about rate cut timing<\/li><li>Trade and geopolitical developments especially around supply chains and tariffs<\/li><li>Cross asset correlations<\/li><\/ul><p>The global economy today is not in crisis, but it is more fragile than headline numbers suggest. Slower growth, high debt and pockets of financial leverage create a landscape where small shocks can have outsized effects. The new year now hinges on whether policymakers can navigate these challenges without triggering the very instability they are trying to prevent.<\/p><p>The most opportunistic action to take now:<\/p><ul><li>Position for lower growth, expect higher volatility within an environment of falling interest rates but keep the optionality for a correction<\/li><li>Increase high-quality income exposure via investment-grade bonds with shorter durations and strong cash flow generating equities<\/li><li>Add selective defensives such as healthcare, consumer staples, utilities especially electricity generating ones and (some) quality tech<\/li><li>Maintain dry powder ~ 10% plus in cash through Money Market Funds &amp; capital guaranteed short-term structured deposits<\/li><li>Avoid high-leveraged, speculative assets for the next six to ninemonths<\/li><li>Diversify geographically and reduce concentrated single country debt and\/or market risk.<\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-08e7c3d elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"08e7c3d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Conclusion<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-325cca3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"325cca3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>A world that is stable \u2013 until it isn\u2019t. <em>Bring it on!<\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7fb6d0c elementor-hidden-desktop elementor-hidden-tablet elementor-hidden-mobile elementor-hidden-widescreen elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"7fb6d0c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>Disclaimer\u00a0<\/strong><\/p><p>The documents herein are issued for general information purposes only. Views and opinions contained herein are those of Bordier &amp; Cie. Its contents may not be reproduced or redistributed. The user will be held fully liable for any unauthorised reproduction or circulation of any document herein, which may give rise to legal proceedings. All information contained herein does not constitute any investment recommendation or legal or tax advice and is provided for information purposes only. Please refer to the provisions of the legal information\/disclaimer page of this website and note that they are fully applicable to any document herein, including and not limited to provisions concerning the restrictions arising from different national laws and regulations. Consequently, Bordier &amp; Cie does not provide any investment service or advice to US persons as defined by the regulations of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, thus the information herein is by no means directed to such persons or entities. \u00a9 2025 Bordier Group and\/or its affiliates.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Monthly Market Update &#8211; December 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":26595,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"%%post_title%% %%sep%% %%sitetitle%%","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[151],"news_country":[12],"news_language":[38],"class_list":["post-26594","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights","tag-elementor-post","news_country-singapore","news_language-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26594","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26594"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26594\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28650,"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26594\/revisions\/28650"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26595"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26594"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26594"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26594"},{"taxonomy":"news_country","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news_country?post=26594"},{"taxonomy":"news_language","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bordier.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news_language?post=26594"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}