Economy

Statistics published in the United States tended to disappoint. SME confidence fell from 97.4 to 95.8 in April, but slightly less than expected (95). Household confidence (Univ. of Michigan) disappointed in May, dropping from 52.2 to 50.8 (vs. 53.4 est.), as did real estate developer confidence (NAHB), which fell from 40 to 34, whereas a stabilization was expected. Retail sales (excluding autos) rose by only 0.1% m/m in April (vs. 0.3 est.) and industrial production was unchanged (vs. +0.1% m/m est.). More moderate than expected growth in consumer prices (+0.2% m/m and +2.3% y/y vs. +0.3% m/m and +2.4% y/y est.) is reassuring. In the Eurozone, industrial production rebounded by 2.6% m/m in March (+3.6% y/y), more than expected (+2% m/m) due to the anticipation of tariffs. In China, new loans increase, but slightly less than expected: the PBoC’s easing is not over yet.

Planetary Boundaries

According to the International Energy Agency, by 2035, demand for copper will exceed supply from current deposits and announced development projects by 30%.

Markets

The reduction in tariffs between the US and China has rekindled risk appetite despite economic disappointments. As a result, US equities jumped by 5.3% (Europe: 2.1%; Emerging markets: +3%), the dollar (dollar index) appreciated by 0.8%, gold fell by 4.9% and oil prices rose by 2.3%. The 7bp rise in US 10-year sovereign interest rates (stable elsewhere), even before the announcement of Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating, brings the cost of US debt back to the high end of the range seen over the past two years. Coming up this week: manufacturing and services PMIs, new and existing home sales in the US; manufacturing and services PMIs and household confidence in the eurozone; retail sales, industrial production and investment in China.

Swiss Market

Coming this week: 2nd estimate of April accommodation statistics (FSO). The following companies will be publishing figures: Sunrise, Swiss Life, EFG International, SoftwareONE, Ypsomed, Galenica and Julius Bär. And VAT Group will be holding its Investor Day.

Equities

ASSA ABLOY (Core Holdings) acquires the German TeleAlarm Group, a specialist in teleassistance technologies for social care centers and home care: 70 employees for sales of 29 million Euros, i.e. 0.2% of group sales.

MICROSOFT (Core Holdings), faced with increased competition from OpenAI, sees its role in the AI ecosystem evolve: while ChatGPT gains in popularity, Copilot faces lower visibility (particularly in B2C), prompting the firm to reposition itself as a neutral player by opening up Azure to other models. At the same time, OpenAI sealed a strategic $4 billion contract with CoreWeave, reinforcing its autonomy.

SIEMENS (Satellites): on the occasion of the 2Q-2025 results, the group’s CEO called on German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to “act responsibly in these difficult times”, by supporting the country’s growth.

TSMC (Satellites) is considering an average price increase of around 10%, including a possible rise of up to 30% for 4 nm production in Arizona, to reflect the costs associated with “Made in USA” manufacturing, according to Taiwanese media (ETToday).

VOLKSWAGEN (Satellites): several major shareholders have asked CEO Oliver Blume, also boss of Porsche (which VW controls at 75%), to give up one of his two management positions… a recurring governance issue since Porsche’s IPO in 2022.



Bonds

In the US, budget discussions weighed on the UST 10y, which gained nearly 10bp over the week, despite generally negative economic publications (SME and consumer confidence down, building permits in sharp contraction). In Europe, the Bund 10y gained 3bp and the OAT was unchanged, with industrial production surprising on the upside and investor sentiment in Germany more negative than expected. This week, the market will be paying close attention to the manufacturing and services PMIs and to developments concerning the US budget.

Sentiment of traders

Stock markets

Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating affected the markets this morning, with US yields rising (10y to 4.53% and 30y to 5%) and US futures down around 1%. Real estate data will be published in the US, while in the Eurozone, we will have the CPI and the European Commission’s economic forecasts. Once again, the markets are in for a bumpy ride.

Currencies

The loss of the US AAA rating is pushing the dollar down this morning: €/$ 1.1238, $/JPY 144.88, $/CHF 0.8334. Volatility is likely to remain high this week. The uptrend in the € would be confirmed if the € res. 1.1260 were broken, otherwise a test of the sup. 1.1070 is possible. Despite the threat of negative interest rates, the CHF remains stable at €/CHF 0.9360, sup. 0.9290, res. 0.9420. Gold is trading at $/oz 3232, sup. 3203, res. 3283. Our ranges: $/CHF 0.8270-0.8420, £/$ 1.3290-1.3415, $/JPY 143.45-147.20.

Today’s graph

U.S. retail sales growth from 2023 to 2025 chart.

Performances

Financial data table with stock indices and exchange rates.

This document has been issued for information purposes and is exclusively supplied by Bordier & Cie SCmA in the framework of an existing contractual relationship with the recipient of this document. The views and opinions contained in it are those of Bordier & Cie SCmA. Its contents may not be reproduced or redistributed by unauthorized persons. The user will be held liable for any unauthorized reproduction or circulation of this document, which may give rise to legal proceedings. All the information contained in it is provided for information only and should in no way be taken as investment, legal or tax advice provided to third parties. Furthermore, it is emphasized that the provisions of our legal information page are fully applicable to this document and namely provisions concerning the restrictions arising from different national laws and regulations. Consequently, Bordier Bank does namely not provide any investment services or advice to “US persons” as defined by the Securities and Exchange Commission rules. Furthermore, the information on our website – including the present document – is by no mean directed to such persons or entities.