Economy

In the United States, published statistics have tended to disappoint. Retail sales grew less than expected in September (+0.2% m/m vs +0.4% est.) and the fall in consumer confidence (Conference Board) in November from 95.5 to 88.7 (vs 93.3 est.) is not reassuring. However, orders for durable goods (excluding transport) rose by +0.6% m/m in September, much higher than expected (+0.2% est.). In the eurozone, the EC’s November confidence indices are in line with the economy at 97 (up from 96.8 in October), rising in services (from +4.2 to +5.7 vs +4.4 est.) but falling in industry (from -8.5 to -9.3 vs -8.3 est.). In China, the manufacturing PMI rose from 49 to 49.2 (vs. 49.4 est.), but the services PMI fell from 50.1 to 49.5 (vs. 50 est.) in November.

Artificial Intelligence

Meta is reportedly in talks to use chips (TPUs) from its rival Google. This potential multi-billion dollar contract aims to reduce critical dependence on Nvidia. The agreement would include cloud leasing from 2026 and direct purchases for 2027. The possible partnership highlights the growing desire among major players to diversify their suppliers in the face of supply tensions and high costs for AI hardware.

Markets

Slight economic disappointments pushed interest rates down, reviving investors’ appetite for risk. As a result, 10-year sovereign rates fell by 4-5 bps in USD and EUR. Equities rose by +3.7% in the US, +1.6% in Switzerland and +2.5% in Europe and emerging markets. The depreciation of the USD index (-0.7%) benefited gold, which rose +3.3%. This week to watch: ISM manufacturing and services, housing starts and building permits, industrial production and PCE inflation in the US; consumer and producer price indices, retail sales and unemployment rate in the eurozone; foreign exchange reserves and trade balance in China.

Swiss Market

Coming up this week: October retail sales (FSO), September service sector sales (FSO), November PMI purchasing managers’ indices, November inflation (FSO), November unemployment (Seco), 2026 market outlook (Pictet) and foreign exchange reserves at the end of November (SNB).

Equities

DEUTSCHE BÖRSE (Core Holding) has entered into exclusive discussions to acquire Allfunds through a mixed offer (DB1 shares/cash), valuing the transaction at around EUR 5.3 billion. The merger, which makes strategic sense, would strengthen Fund Services, generate IT/distribution synergies and be accretive (EPS +5–6%). Debt remains under control, flexibility intact and growth momentum strengthened ahead of the CMD on December 10.

ENGIE (Satellite) has won a large-scale 280 MW battery energy storage project in India. This is the group’s second-largest project of its kind worldwide; the announced capacity is equivalent to about half that of a standard gas-fired power plant.

VEEVA posted solid results for Q3 FY26, with revenue of USD 811 million (+16% YoY) and EPS of USD 2.04, exceeding expectations. The mix continues to diversify: CRM now accounts for only 20% of revenue, with Clinical, Quality/Safety and Crossix gaining ground. However, the loss of four major accounts and intensifying competition are undermining the long-term trajectory. The 2030 targets remain in place but are becoming a point of tension. We are removing Veeva from the US Satellite list in the absence of strategic and financial clarification.

ZOETIS (Core Holding) has received regulatory approval to launch Lenivia in Europe. Lenivia is a new molecule for treating osteoarthritis pain in dogs, with a longer duration of action (3 months vs. 1 month currently). The company will hold its Investor Day tomorrow, during which management will provide an update on clinical progress and upcoming launches.



Bonds

In the US, 10-year yields fell 5bp over the week amid disappointing consumer confidence figures and the publication of the Fed’s Beige Book, which confirmed a slowdown in the labour market. In Europe, the 10-year OAT lost 6 bps and the Bund lost 1 bp over the week, with both countries posting negative consumer price index (CPI) figures on a monthly basis. This week, the market will be watching closely for the appointment of the next Fed Chair, as well as US ISM and employment data.

Sentiment of traders

Stock markets

Markets started December in the red amid interest rate tensions, with the US 10-year yield rising to 4.04%. Black Friday sales were up 9.1% compared to 2024. On the macro front, the US will release ISM, PPI, trade balance and property sales data, but still no employment statistics. In the eurozone, unemployment, PPI, CPI and GDP figures will be published.

Currencies

Risk aversion is back this morning, with gold and silver soaring to $4,251/oz and $57.05/oz. BOJ Governor Ueda has not ruled out the possibility of a rate hike in December, pushing the JPY higher: $/JPY 155.35. Recent statements by Donald Trump about the new Fed governance for 2026 are fuelling expectations of a US rate cut. The dollar is therefore trending downwards: $/CHF 0.8025, €/$ 1.1620, our ranges $/CHF 0.7965 – 0.8125, €/$ 1.1530 – 1.1700. The CHF remains stable at €/CHF 0.9325, sup. 0.9230, res. 0.94.

Today’s graph

Consumer confidence trends in the U.S. since 2000.

Performances

Financial indices and exchange rates as of 2025.

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