Economy

Statistics published in the United States were mixed. Retail sales growth (+0.6% m/m) was particularly surprising (+0.2% est.) in August. In the same month, industrial production (+0.1% m/m) also proved better than expected (-0.1% m/m). However, the real estate sector remains depressed: developer confidence stagnated in September (at 32) and building permits (-3.7% m/m vs. +0.6% est.) and housing starts (-8.5% m/m vs. -4.4% est.) fell more than expected. In the eurozone, industrial production rose by 0.3% m/m (+1.8% y/y) in July (vs +0.4% est.), but the previous month was revised upwards (from -1.3% m/m to -0.6%). In China, retail sales (+3.4% y/y vs +3.8% est.), industrial production (+5.2% y/y vs +5.6% est.) and investment (+0.5% y/y vs +1.5% est.) disappointed in August.

Planetary Boundaries

According to the International Energy Agency, global electric battery production capacity tripled between 2021 and 2024, reaching ~3 TWh/year, and is expected to triple again by 2030.

Markets

The Fed’s expected decision to cut rates by 0.25% was fairly well received by equities, which rose 1.3% in the US and 1.2% in emerging markets, but fell 0.1% in Europe. Ten-year sovereign yields reacted less strongly, rising a few basis points in USD and EUR. This did not prevent gold from gaining 0.8%. In this environment, the dollar index is relatively stable, up only 0.1%, as is oil, whose prices are down 0.4%. To watch this week: manufacturing and services PMI, new and existing home sales, durable goods orders and PCE inflation in the United States; manufacturing and services PMI in the eurozone; 1- and 5-year borrowing rates in China.

Swiss Market

To watch this week: August accommodation statistics (FSO), Q2 balance of payments (SNB), real estate bubble index (UBS), autumn economic forecasts (KOF), September UBS-CFA indices and monetary policy assessment (SNB).

The following companies will publish their figures: Santhera, Xlife, Hilti and Zwahlen & Mayr.

Equities

MICRON (Satellite) will publish its Q4 FY2025 results on Tuesday after the close, against a backdrop of a sharp recovery in memory prices (DRAM, NAND, HBM), supported by strong demand from big tech companies and long-term contracts already under discussion until 2026. The consensus forecast is for revenue of USD 11.16 billion (+44% YoY, +20% QoQ) and EPS of USD 2.82 (+139% YoY, +48% QoQ). The environment remains favourable, with constrained supply and increased allocation to high value-added segments, although the stock continues to face some scepticism linked to memories of the sector’s past cyclicality.

ROCHE (Core Holding) announced the success of its Phase III study evaluating giredestrant as a second-line treatment for ER+ (oestrogen receptor-positive) breast cancer. While the commercial potential of this indication is modest, the new mechanism of action (SERD – Selective Estrogen Receptor Degrader) is the subject of a broader clinical programme, with a larger study expected by the end of the year. This first step is positive given low consensus expectations.



Bonds

At its last meeting, the Fed raised its 2026 growth (+0.2 p.p. to 1.8%) and inflation (+0.2 p.p. to 2.6%) projections, while lowering its unemployment projection (-0.1 p.p. to 4.4%). This message contrasts with recent interest rate movements, which anticipated a more pronounced weakness in employment. US rates rebounded (10-year +6 bp) and the terminal rate (Dec. 2026) rose 6 bp to 3%, still c.40 bp lower than the DOT. In credit, the week was favourable for risk, with a sharp tightening of HY spreads (EU-13 bp / US-9 bp).

Sentiment of traders

Stock markets

Wall Street set new records after US interest rates fell. This week, we will see the PMIs in the eurozone, durable goods orders in the US, GDP and then PCE. The SNB is meeting on Thursday (no change expected). On the micro side, Micron and H&M will publish their results. Markets are opening this morning in a mixed fashion, close to equilibrium.

Currencies

Following the Fed’s rate cut and strong US figures, the US dollar is rebounding: USD/CHF 0.7952, USD/JPY 148.05. The euro is under pressure as long as it remains below EUR/USD 1.18, trading this morning at 1.1753. The violation of Estonian airspace by Russian fighter jets and the cyberattack on numerous European airports are prompting us to favour the dollar over the euro in the short term, with a high of 1.1662 and a low of 1.1910. Against this backdrop, the Swiss franc remains firm at €/CHF 0.9345, with a high of 0.9215 and a low of 0.9400. The £ is correcting at £/$ 1.3475, sup. 1.33313, res. 1.3726. Gold is soaring to $3716/oz, sup. 3614, res. 3750.

Today’s graph

US Headline vs Core CPI trends 2024-2025 graph.

Performances

Financial data table showing SMI, USD, and yields.

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