- Switzerland
Read the latest weekly report on the financial sectors and financial …
Monday Report
- 6 min read
- You can also download this report in
Economy
The statistics published in the United States were mixed. Among the good news, business confidence (NFIB index) rose more than expected in October, from 91.5 to 93.7, as did Empire Manufacturing in November, at 31.2 compared with -11.9 in October. The October consumer price index was in line with expectations (+0.2% m/m; +2.6% y/y), as was core inflation (+0.3% m/m; +3.3% y/y). Retail sales rose by 0.4% m/m (vs +0.3% est.), even though the previous month was revised upwards. In the eurozone, industrial production came in below expectations in September (-2% m/m vs -1.4% m/m est.). In China, industrial production rose less than expected in October (+5.3% y/y vs. +5.6% y/y est.), but retail sales were better than expected (+4.8% y/y vs. +3.8% y/y est.).
Planetary Limits
According to Carbon Brief's databases, 550 "non-natural" disasters, i.e. linked to climate change, have now been recorded. The majority of studies (60% to over 90%, depending on the type of disaster) conclude that global warming is having a more severe impact on: heat waves, ocean temperatures, fires, storms, droughts, rainfall and flooding.
Markets
With US price indices up m/m and the economy still robust, J. Powell said he was in no hurry to cut Fed rates sharply. The dollar (up 1.6%) rose logically, as did US yields (10-year yields up 14 bp), dragging down the 10-year bond (down 1.1%), unlike Europe (Bund up 0.2%, Italy up 0.8%) and causing equities to breathe (Europe down 0.7%, US down 2.0%, emerging markets down 4.5%) and gold (down 4.2%) after their solid performances since the start of the year. Brent crude is also down 2%. This week, we will be watching: manufacturing and services PMIs, homebuilder’s confidence (NAHB), housing starts and building permits in the United States; household confidence, manufacturing and services PMIs in the eurozone; 1 and 5-year loan rate in China.
Swiss Market
Coming up this week: production in industry and construction in Q3 (FSO), foreign trade/watch exports October (Ofdf) and outlook for the global economy and the insurance market in 2025/26 (Swiss Re). The following companies are due to release figures: Sonova, Baloise, EFG International, Klingelnberg and Julius Bär. We will also be holding investor days for: DKSH, Nestlé, Dormakaba, SGS, Zurich, Bachem and Komax.
Equities
ASSA ABLOY (Core Holdings) buys Italian company IXLA (50 employees, €13m sales), which specializes in advanced lasers and coloring systems for cards and passports.
The first CMD of the new NESTLE CEO (Core Holdings), Laurent Freixe, represents a crucial opportunity to restore confidence after a series of profit warnings and strategic errors that have damaged the Group’s credibility. With 2025 seen as a transitional year, the challenge lies in presenting a realistic and ambitious plan for 2026 and beyond, while reassuring on the margins and investments needed to boost volumes, particularly with a consumer-focused positioning. It should be noted that the consensus is for +3.3% organic growth in 2025.
Healthcare sector – Appointment of Robert F.Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of the Health and Human Services (HHS) Department, subject to confirmation by the Senate. The HHS oversees the health agencies (CDC, NIH, FDA). His priorities include preventing chronic diseases, with a focus on the food chain (fertilizers, GMOs, ultra-processed foods), strengthening the approval process and oversight of vaccines and drugs, and restructuring the health agencies. His appointment brings uncertainty to the pharmaceutical sector, notably through a potential reshaping of the FDA, and the associated segments, in particular scientific equipment.
Bonds
US interest rates continued to rise, with the 10Y gaining 14bp over the week, supported by Powell's suggestion that the Fed might not cut rates as much as expected. Inflation and unemployment, in line with expectations, and retail sales, showing resilient consumption, reinforce this trend. The market is now adjusting its expectations, forecasting a key rate of 3.8% in 2026, compared with 3.6% last week. This week, the PMIs and the University of Michigan survey will be scrutinized.
Sentiment of traders
Stock markets
Concerns about a pause in the US rate cut weighed on the markets, while the pharmaceuticals sector plunged after RFK’s appointment as healthcare minister. Nvidia’s results will be closely watched, and on the macro front, we will have statistics on real estate, PMIs and the Leading Index in the US, while in the eurozone the CPI will be published. Volatility is likely to remain high.
Currencies
This week, traders will remain focused on the Trump trade, awaiting further details on tariffs. More and more traders are expecting the Fed to cut rates more slowly than expected. Therefore we remain positive on the dollar, which is consolidating its gains at €/$ 1.0554 and $/CHF 0.8867. We expect the following ranges: €/$ 1.0368-1.0629, $/CHF 0.8821-0.8945. The CHF strengthens to €/CHF 0.9354, sup. 0.9285 res. 0.9446. The £ weakens to £/$ 1.2619 sup. 1.2540 res. 1.2880. Gold is at $2587/oz, sup. 2574 res. 2688.
Today’s graph
Performances
This document has been issued for information purposes and is exclusively supplied by Bordier & Cie SCmA in the framework of an existing contractual relationship with the recipient of this document. The views and opinions contained in it are those of Bordier & Cie SCmA. Its contents may not be reproduced or redistributed by unauthorized persons. The user will be held liable for any unauthorized reproduction or circulation of this document, which may give rise to legal proceedings. All the information contained in it is provided for information only and should in no way be taken as investment, legal or tax advice provided to third parties. Furthermore, it is emphasized that the provisions of our legal information page are fully applicable to this document and namely provisions concerning the restrictions arising from different national laws and regulations. Consequently, Bordier Bank does namely not provide any investment services or advice to “US persons” as defined by the Securities and Exchange Commission rules. Furthermore, the information on our website – including the present document – is by no mean directed to such persons or entities.
insights
- International, Switzerland
Read our latest edition of the Bordier Private Markets Newsletter
- Singapore
A brief recap of the market’s past week, by Bordier Singapore