« All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. » So soliloquised the ‘replicant’ Roy, played by Rutger Hauer in Ridley Scott’s 1982 film, ‘Blade Runner’, when reflecting on the transience of all things. 

All political parties are essentially coalitions; however, it seems though that the UK’s governing Labour Party has shown itself as predominantly left wing, merely tolerating a small group of arguably more moderate leaders that got it into power in the general election only a year ago. 

Not only did a sizeable number of Labour MP’s vote against the government on the (by then completely filleted) Welfare Reform Bill on Tuesday evening, but almost as many abstained, thereby cutting the government’s majority in the House of Commons by more than half. 

Add to that the reverse on the Winter Fuel Allowance and the calls for abolition of the Two-Child Benefit cap, one senses at least anecdotally a trend emerging: if any proposals to cut back the ballooning welfare state are motivated by fiscal rectitude, then accompanying measures will not get past Labour’s backbench MPs.

“The sight of Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, crying at Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday lunchtime should trigger compassion in all of us…”

The sight of Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, crying at Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday lunchtime should trigger compassion in all of us, whatever our political persuasion. It reminds us, if anything, that politicians are (unlike the replicants in ‘Blade Runner’) all too human.

However, whatever the reasons for this sad display, it will be one of those images that remains imprinted in the national psyche, like former Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak’s rain-soaked announcement of the 2024 general election in May last year.

The fiscally moderate leadership of the Labour Party, personified by Rachel Reeves, is clearly now captive to a largely very left-wing majority of backbench MPs – reflecting, many argue, a failure of party management by Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer.

« If Reeves is prevented from maintaining her fiscal discipline, this will have portentous effects on bond yields. »

If Reeves is prevented from maintaining her fiscal discipline, this will have portentous effects on bond yields. Alternatively further tax rises, even within the boundaries Reeves has set previously, will further damage a stuttering economy. Moreover, spending restraint is, given the mood of backbenchers, highly unlikely. Can the government, therefore, restore economic confidence?

What a way to end a first year in government – as Roy in ‘Blade Runner’ reflects wistfully: « I’ve seen things you people wouldn’t believe. Attack ships on fire off (the) shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. »

We will continue to steer our risk-adjusted, well diversified course and will work with advisers as events unfold – wherever they may lead.

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