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Economy

The economic data released in the United States was generally encouraging. While the ISM Manufacturing Index was slightly disappointing in August, falling from 55.6 to 54.6 (vs. an estimated 55.2), it remains firmly in expansionary territory, and its services counterpart rose more than expected, from 54.1 to 55.4. In addition, the economy added 162,000 jobs in August—well above the expected 55,000—and previous months’ figures were revised upward by a total of 55,000. In the eurozone, inflation rose to +3.3% y/y (core inflation at +2.4% y/y), in line with expectations in August, but retail sales disappointed in July (-0.6% m/m vs. +0.2% est.). In China, the disappointing August services PMI—which remained unchanged at 49 when an improvement to 49.4 had been expected—was offset by a positive surprise in the manufacturing PMI, which rose from 49.2 to 49.8 (vs. 49.5 est.).

Artificial Intelligence

S&P warns about the cost of “build-out”: the six hyperscalers are expected to invest >$1,300 billion by 2027, with negative free operating cash flow for all of them in 2026–27. However, the risk varies significantly among players: the challenge is no longer just the growth in capex, but its coverage by EBITDA and the ability to monetize AI.

Markets

Tensions in the Middle East weighed on oil prices, which rose 7.8%, and pushed 10-year sovereign yields higher (USD: +5 bps; EUR: +7 bps; CHF: +3 bps), also influenced by strong U.S. employment data. The dollar (dollar index: -0.5%) is suffering from attacks on the Fed, which, incidentally, are not benefiting gold (-2.6%). Against this backdrop, stocks are unchanged in the U.S. (+0.1%) and in emerging markets (+0.2%), while they are down 0.8% in Europe. To watch this week: the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, consumer and producer price indices, existing home sales, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the United States; retail sales and the ECB meeting in the eurozone; consumer and producer price indices, foreign exchange reserves, and the trade balance in China.

Swiss Market

Coming up this week: August unemployment figures (SECO), foreign exchange reserves as of the end of August (SNB), announcement of a federal bond issue (SNB), August traffic statistics (Zurich Airport), and August consumer sentiment survey (SECO).

The following companies will report earnings: Burkhalter, BVZ, Bioversys, Medacta, SHL, and La Mobilière.

Equities

ASTRAZENECA (Core Holding) has just received FDA approval to launch Etcamah, a new class of therapy for patients with metastatic HR+/HER2- breast cancer (hormone receptor-positive and HER2-receptor-negative) who have an ESR1 mutation. Following a negative vote by the advisory committee in April, the company submitted additional data that has now enabled the authorities to grant approval. While this first indication represents limited revenue (approx. $1 billion), its development program could offer upside potential if successful.

NOVARTIS (Core Holding) announced Friday evening the clinical failure of pelacarsen, a new therapeutic class in the cardiovascular field that failed to demonstrate any benefit. The drug had the highest-risk profile among the clinical data expected by the end of this year. The consensus forecast called for sales of $1 billion in 2030, which would justify a 1–2% decline in the stock price. We recommend adding to positions on the dip.

Reinsurance Sector: The Monte Carlo conference confirms a more competitive reinsurance market, with prices expected to continue falling through 2027—particularly in “Natural Catastrophes”—and a risk of pressure on terms. Reinsurers remain confident, despite a gradual but controlled erosion of margins.

Bonds

In the U.S., the 10-year Treasury yield rose 6 bps over the week, supported by NFP data that beat all expectations at 162k versus the expected 55k, and generally positive ISM readings. In Europe, the 10-year Bund also rose by 6 basis points, and the OAT with an equivalent maturity rose by 7, as CPI and PPI accelerated in the eurozone. This week, the market will be paying close attention to the ECB meeting—at which a rate hike is virtually certain—as well as the subsequent press conference, ahead of next week’s Fed meeting.

Sentiment of traders

Stock markets

European markets opened mixed on this Monday, a U.S. holiday (Labor Day), with oil prices up slightly and interest rates remaining firm. On the macro front, the ECB meeting is scheduled for Thursday (expected rate hike of +0.25%), and in the U.S., PPI and CPI data will be closely scrutinized. Market participants are also awaiting earnings reports from Adobe and Oracle, set to be released on Thursday.

Currencies

Following missile strikes on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude has climbed to $97; a return to $120 per barrel cannot be ruled out. The JPY continues its rebound this morning: $/JPY 155.74, sup. 154.50, res. 159.10. Despite expectations of an ECB rate hike this week, the euro is trading sideways at €/$ 1.1613 and €/CHF 0.9415. We anticipate the following ranges: €/$ 1.1513–1.17 and €/CHF 0.9315–0.9460. Forex traders will be watching the U.S. CPI closely this week. Following the release of the NFP report, gold fell from $4,510 to $4,396 this morning.

Today’s graph

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Performances

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