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Economy

Economic data released in the United States was mixed. On the positive side, the ISM manufacturing index rose more than expected in July (from 53.3 to 55.6 vs. an estimate of 53.9), and the services index rose from 54 to 54.1 (vs. an estimate of 54.5). On the other hand, the economy lost 23,000 jobs in July instead of the expected 80,000 gains, and previous months were revised downward by -103,000 jobs. However, the disappointment is concentrated in the public sector (-53,000); the private sector continues to hire (+30,000). In the eurozone, the monthly contraction in producer prices in June (-0.3% m/m and +4.6% y/y) was in line with expectations, while the decline in retail sales (-0.3% m/m; +0.7% y/y) fell short of expectations (+0.1% m/m; +1% y/y). In China, the RatingDog manufacturing and services PMIs disappointed, falling from 51.7 to 50.9 (vs. 52 est.) and from 54.1 to 50.4 (vs. 53.7 est.), respectively.

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI has suspended certain activities related to Astra following internal assessments showing significant progress in agent-based programming and cybersecurity. These agents can execute coding tasks more autonomously, with less human supervision, which also increases the potential risks of malicious use. Development is therefore continuing under stricter controls, which may temporarily slow down deployment.

Markets

As negotiations continue, markets are anticipating a de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Consequently, oil prices fell by more than 7%, and 10-year sovereign yields declined by 7 basis points in USD and 8–10 basis points in EUR. Stocks benefited from this, rising +3.7% in the U.S. and +1.7% in Europe, while falling 0.5% in emerging markets. The 0.4% depreciation of the dollar index helped drive a +7.6% rebound in gold prices. To watch this week: SME confidence (NFIB), consumer and producer price indices, retail sales, and consumer confidence (University of Michigan) in the United States; Sentix investor confidence, industrial production, and the trade balance in the eurozone; and consumer and producer price indices in China.

Swiss Market

Coming up this week: July producer and import prices (SFSO) and Q2 GDP (SECO).

The following companies will report earnings: Aryzta, Alcon, Bell, Tecan, On Holding, Berner Bank, IVF Hartmann, St. Gallen Bank, Zurich Airport, Schlatter, Komax, Montana Aerospace, Polypeptide, Swissquote, Mobilezone, and VZ Holding.

Equities

ALLIANZ (Satellite) reported better-than-expected Q2 ’26 results, with operating profit of €4.87 billion (+6%), driven by Life and Asset Management, while Non-Life was broadly in line with expectations. Net income fell short by 7–8%, primarily due to timing effects. Fundamentals remain robust and targets are confirmed, despite the slowdown in non-life insurance.

To watch this week in the AI sector: COREWEAVE (Satellite) and APPLIED MATERIALS (Core Holding). CoreWeave will report on Tuesday, August 11: attention will focus on the ramp-up of its new computing capabilities and the conversion of its order backlog into revenue. Applied Materials will report on Thursday, August 13: barring any major changes to the outlook, the company should continue to benefit from increased investment in new semiconductor fabs and AI-related capabilities.

INFINEON (Satellite) reported a solid Q3, with record revenue of €4.17 billion (+9% q-o-q) and an EBIT margin of 19.1%. Momentum remains driven by AI data centers, with the Power & Sensor Systems segment growing 14% for the quarter, while the automotive sector is showing signs of recovery despite still-weak demand for high-voltage components for electric vehicles. For Q4, the company is targeting €4.7 billion in revenue and a margin of 23%.

Bonds

In the U.S., the 10-year Treasury yield fell by 9 basis points last week, driven by job gains that were well below consensus (-23k vs. an expected +80k) and downward revisions, coupled with hourly wage growth (+0.1% MoM vs. an expected +0.3%) that fell short of expectations. In Europe, the 10-year Bund and OAT fell by 8 basis points, with unemployment in France at its highest level since the pandemic and sluggish industrial production in both countries. This week, the U.S. CPI will be the focus of attention.

Sentiment of traders

Stock markets

Markets opened virtually unchanged after a positive week. Weak U.S. employment data seemed to push back the prospect of an imminent rate hike. We’ll see a few more quarterly earnings reports from Super Micro, Cisco, and Applied Materials, while on the macro front, U.S. CPI, PPI, and retail sales figures will be released. In the eurozone, we’ll get GDP and unemployment data.

Currencies

Last week was volatile; weak U.S. employment data halted the dollar’s upward trend: $/CHF 0.8085, sup. 0.7955, res. 0.8152. The receding likelihood of a Fed rate hike in September is helping the €/$ pair rebound: €/$ 1.1556, sup. 1.1470, res. 1.1685. Forex traders will be focused on the U.S. CPI this week. The CHF is weakening to €/CHF 0.9341, sup. 0.93, res. 0.94. Gold is rebounding strongly to $4,354/oz.

Today’s graph

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Performances

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