Economy

In the US, the publication of statistics remains disrupted (shutdown). The ISM manufacturing index fell by 0.4 points in October to 48.7 vs. 49.5 expected, while the services index rose by 2.4 points to 52.4 vs. 51 expected. In the absence of the employment report, the ADP survey for October indicates 42,000 job creations (vs. -29,000 in Sept. and 30,000 expected), but the Challenger index shows a 175% year-on-year increase in layoffs, explaining the decline in the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index (University of Michigan) in November to 50.3 (-3.6 points vs. 54.1 expected). In Europe in September, producer prices fell by 0.1% m/m and 0.2% y/y, in line with expectations, and retail sales rose by 1% y/y. In China in October, imports rose by 1% y/y vs. 3.1% expected, while exports fell by 1.1% vs. an expected increase of 3.5%; foreign exchange reserves remained stable at USD 3.3 trillion.

Artificial Intelligence

Following comments by OpenAI’s CFO about possible public support, CEO Sam Altman clarified that the company would remain privately funded, with $1.4 trillion in commitments over eight years. OpenAI could also sell its computing capacity, given global demand far exceeding forecasts. The real risk, he said, is a lack of resources, not an excess.

Markets

Despite Q3 2025 results continuing to exceed expectations, doubts about the valuation of the artificial intelligence ecosystem caused equities to fall: US -1.6% (Nasdaq -3.5%), emerging markets -1.4%, Europe -1.2%, while gold (+0.5%) and US sovereign bonds (+0.1%) stabilised. This week, we will be monitoring: inflation (production and consumption) and retail sales for October in the United States; industrial production for September, the Sentix economic index for November and Q3 GDP in Europe; and inflation (production and consumption) and lending volume for October in China.

Swiss Market

Coming up this week: Swiss Confederation bond issue (SNB), October traffic statistics (Zurich Airport) and October production-import price index (FSO).

The following companies will publish their figures: Lem, Klingelnberg, PSP Swiss Property, Sunrise, Alcon, Swiss Life, Ypsomed, On Holding, Montana Aerospace, SoftwareONE, Richemont, Sonova and Swiss Re.

Equities

ASTRAZENECA (Core Holding): Clinical data for baxdrostat in resistant hypertension surprised on the upside despite high expectations. The company anticipates peak sales of more than $5 billion (for all indications in development) compared to a consensus of only $2 billion.

We are removing CELLNEX from the Satellite recommendations list. Despite good figures, Cellnex remains hampered by high leverage (~6x EBITDA) and limited visibility on consolidation in France (SFR case), slowing down short-term catalysts.

EATON is being removed from our US Satellites list. Valuation ratios have returned to their historic highs, which is no longer sufficient to justify the trajectory, even if positive, of expected results.

We are removing FORTINET from the Core Holdings list of recommendations. Despite solid fundamentals, Fortinet’s growth profile is deteriorating, with the growth mix weakening and 2026 looking more challenging.

ROCHE (Core Holding): successful clinical trial evaluating fenebrutinib in multiple sclerosis. The hepatic tolerance profile is described as consistent with previous studies at this stage. However, additional safety data are currently being evaluated. Expectations are low, but the consensus will wait for the data to be presented before refining its estimates.

VESTAS joins our EU Satellites list. After several difficult years, the last few quarters have shown an improvement in operating performance. If this continues, the expected earnings growth (resulting from the large order book) is cheap.



Bonds

In the US, the 10-year bond ended the week up 2 bp, supported by stronger-than-expected ISM services and ADP data, despite a sharp sequential deterioration in the ISM manufacturing index and consumer sentiment published by the University of Michigan, which were both below expectations. In Europe, the 10-year Bund rose 3 bp and the 10-year OAT rose 4 bp, supported by sequentially higher manufacturing data. This week, the market will be particularly attentive to negotiations to end the longest shutdown in US history.

Sentiment of traders

Stock markets

Despite a small correction last week and in the absence of US statistics, equity indices tested the 50-day moving average without breaking through it. We should still see CPI and PPI figures, while in the eurozone the ZEW, GDP and unemployment figures will be published. Markets opened in positive territory.

Currencies

After a turbulent end to the week, the announcement of a potential agreement by US senators to end the shutdown has reassured traders. The dollar is stabilising at $/CHF 0.8050, sup. 0.80, res. 0.8115. Risk appetite is pushing the euro slightly higher this morning: €/$ 1.1580, €/CHF 0.9325. We anticipate the following ranges: €/$ 1.15-1.1635, €/CHF 0.9275-0.9350. The £ is attempting a rebound to 1.3180, sup. 1.3020, res. 1.3280. Gold is rising rapidly to $4078/oz on expectations of a US rate cut in December, sup 4000 res. 4109.

Today’s graph

US consumer confidence trend 1990-2025 graph.

Performances

Financial market performance data chart as of 2025.

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