Economy

The publication of certain economic statistics in the United States remains disrupted by the federal government shutdown. SME confidence (NFIB index) fell more than expected in September (from 100.8 to 98.8 vs. 100.6 est.). On the other hand, the Empire Manufacturing leading indicator rebounded much more than expected in October, from -8.7 to +10.7 (vs. -1.8 est.). Similarly, confidence among real estate developers recovered, rising from 32 to 37 in October (vs. 33 est.). In the eurozone, industrial production contracted by 1.2% m/m in August (+1.1% y/y), less than expected, and the previous month was revised upwards (from +0.3% to +0.5% m/m). Finally, in China, although slightly less intense, deflationary pressures persist with the contraction of the consumer price index (from -0.4% y/y in September to -0.3% y/y) and the producer price index (from -2.9% in September to -2.3% y/y).

Planetary Boundaries

Ahead of next month’s United Nations climate summit in Brazil, the World Meteorological Organisation points out that carbon dioxide levels rose to unprecedented levels between 2023 and 2024, with an increase of 3.5 ppm in one year – the largest jump ever observed since measurements began in 1957.

Markets

Fears about bank lending in the United States, following the frauds suffered by Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp, only had a negative impact on the markets on Thursday. Over the week, equities rose across the board (US: +1.7%; Switzerland: +1.3% and Europe: +0.4%), except in emerging markets (-0.3%). Ten-year sovereign yields fell by ~5-7 bp in USD and EUR, and the dollar depreciated by 0.6%, driving gold prices up 5.9% while oil prices fell 2.7%. This week to watch: consumer price index, manufacturing and services PMI and new home sales in the United States; consumer confidence and manufacturing and services PMI in the eurozone; Q3 GDP, retail sales, investment and industrial production in China.

Swiss Market

Coming up this week: foreign trade/watch exports for September and Q3 (FDFO), accommodation statistics for September (FSO) and monetary policy assessment (SNB).

The following companies will publish their figures: Aryzta, Huber+Suhner, U-blox, Bystronic, SGS, Galenica, Lonza, Kühne+Nagel, Galderma, Inficon, Roche, Gurit, Sika, Holcim, Schindler and BB Biotech.

Equities

AIRBUS (Satellite) announced an order from Germany for 20 new Eurofighter multi-role combat aircraft, with deliveries scheduled between 2031 and 2034. This is a concrete manifestation of the German recovery plan.

ASTRAZENECA (Core Holding) presented a series of clinical data in breast cancer, with positive results for Enhertu as an adjuvant and neoadjuvant in HER2-overexpressing breast cancer and for Datroway in triple-negative breast cancer. These indications represent a long-term sales potential of approximately $1-1.5 billion for Enhertu and approximately $1 billion for Datroway.

ROCHE (Core Holding) presented phase III results this weekend for giredestrant as a second-line treatment in patients with hormone-dependent (ER+) breast cancer that does not express the HER2 protein (HER2-). Detailed data confirmed a significant benefit in patients with an ESR1 mutation. However, efficacy is limited in patients without the mutation. While this subgroup limits the commercial potential of the treatment, it nevertheless validates consensus expectations, estimating long-term sales potential at approximately $800 million.

VOLKSWAGEN (Satellite): According to the German press, Oliver Blume will step down as CEO of Porsche in 2026, leaving his place to a technician familiar with the Volkswagen Group. Positive: Mr Blume’s dual role as CEO of VW and Porsche was criticised by many observers and investors.



Bonds

In the US, the 10-year yield fell 3 bp last week in a week without any significant releases due to the shutdown, but marked by US-China tensions and fears about regional banks. In Europe, the 10-year OAT lost 12 bp after a motion of no confidence against the Lecornu government failed, while the 10-year Bund lost 6 bp. This week will be marked by developments in the US shutdown and the release of the CPI on Friday, the only significant indicator published before next week’s FOMC meeting.

Sentiment of traders

Stock markets

With the trade war calming down and no major macro news due to the shutdown, the week should get off to a good start. This will be the first big week of quarterly earnings reports, and we expect confirmation of the luxury sector’s good health with L’Oréal and Hermès reporting on Tuesday and Wednesday. In the US, Netflix and Tesla will be in the spotlight, giving us a glimpse of the tech sector’s vitality.

Currencies

The week is starting in a calm climate but one that is potentially sensitive to international shocks (tensions between the US and China and between Israel and Palestine). The CHF remains strong against the major currencies, confirming its role as a safe haven. This morning, the EUR/CHF is at 0.9255 and the USD/CHF at 0.7940. After trading at USD 4,379/ounce on Friday, gold is stabilising around USD 4,250/ounce.

Today’s graph

China CPI and PPI trends, 2023-2025 graph.

Performances

Financial market data and currency exchange rates.

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