Economy

The statistics published in the United States are somewhat mixed. Purchasing managers’ confidence in the manufacturing sector surprised on the upside in March (rising from 51.6 to 52.4 vs. an expected 51.5), whilst it disappointed in the services sector (falling from 51.7 to 51.1 vs. an expected 52). Growth in import prices (+1.3% m/m and +1.3% y/y) and export prices (+1.5% m/m and +3.5% y/y) is faster than expected, even before the effects of the conflict in the Middle East. In the eurozone, household confidence fell in March (from -12.3 to -16.3) more than expected (-14.2) due to rising energy costs. As in the US, the manufacturing PMI rose more than expected, from 50.8 to 51.4 (vs 49.6 est.), whilst the services PMI disappointed (down from 51.9 to 50.1 vs 51.1 est.) in March. In China, industrial profits rebounded by 15.2% year-on-year in February.

Artificial Intelligence

The software sector remains under pressure. The leak regarding Claude Mythos, Anthropic’s upcoming model touted as a ‘leap in capability’ particularly in cybersecurity, has triggered a fresh wave of selling in software and cyber stocks: investors fear that these advances will render current digital defences obsolete just as quickly as traditional SaaS tools.

Markets

The conflict in the Middle East is weighing on markets and fuelling volatility. Equities are mixed (US: -2.1%; emerging markets: -1.7%; Europe: +0.4% and Switzerland: +2%). Sovereign bond yields rose by +5bp in USD and ~+10bp in EUR. The dollar index rose by 0.4%. Rising interest rates and a stronger dollar weighed on gold (-1.3%). Over the week, oil prices rose by just 0.9% but with very sharp daily fluctuations. To watch this week: retail sales, ISM manufacturing and services indices, consumer confidence and the US jobs report; EC confidence indices (economy, industry and services), consumer price index and unemployment rate in the eurozone; manufacturing and services PMIs in China.

Swiss Market

To watch this week, which is shortened by Good Friday: March economic barometer (KOF), Q4 foreign exchange market intervention volume (SNB), February retail sales (FSO), January services turnover (FSO), March PMI indices and March inflation (FSO).

The following companies will publish their results: Jungfraubahn, Adval Tech, Romande Energie, SoftwareONE, Valartis, Varia US, Asmallworld, Aevis, Lastminute and Montana Aerospace.

Equities

ENGIE (Satellite): is set to build and operate its largest onshore wind farm in the world, with a capacity of 900 MW, under a renewable power purchase agreement (PPA) with the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC).

RIO TINTO (Satellite): two major aluminium smelters (1.6 million tonnes per annum each) located in the Middle East have been hit by Iranian strikes. The damage is currently being assessed. These events are likely to reignite concerns regarding production capacity in the region, which accounts for 9% of global supply. The read-across is positive for Rio Tinto, for which aluminium accounts for around 13% of EBITDA.

SK HYNIX (Satellite) and Micron fell following the release of TurboQuant, a Google algorithm designed to reduce the memory footprint of LLMs. This correction is part of a natural cycle: when memory prices reach these levels, the entire value chain intensifies its search for alternatives. The underlying fundamentals—the acceleration of HBM and the ramp-up of inference—remain firmly positive, however, and support the view that this cycle will be more sustained than previous ones.



Bonds

In the US, the 10-year yield rose by 5 basis points over the week, against a backdrop of the ongoing conflict with Iran. The preliminary manufacturing PMI for March exceeded expectations, although the services PMI was disappointing. Europe saw a similar upward trend, with the 10-year OAT rising by 8 basis points and the 10-year Bund by 5 basis points, whilst expectations of rate hikes eased after peaking, as growth concerns took precedence over inflation fears. Developments in the Iran conflict will remain the focus of market attention this week.

Sentiment of traders

Stock markets

Ahead of Friday’s NFP figures, which we hope will not show job losses in the US this month, the markets will be keeping a close eye on the Middle East. Hopes of a deal are preventing the markets from falling further this morning. But with oil prices refusing to drop, the tension remains palpable. Crude oil prices could be affected as early as Tuesday when Eurozone inflation figures are released.

Currencies

The arrival of additional US troops raises the possibility of a takeover of Kharg Island. The Houthis are threatening, in retaliation, to restrict shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Against this backdrop, crude oil has reached $115.6 per barrel. The $ continues to strengthen in the short term: $/CHF 0.7997, support 0.79, resistance 0.8065. The €/$ remains under pressure at 1.1500, support 1.1450, resistance 1.1580. Currency traders will be watching for US inflation figures, which are expected to rise. The CHF is down at €/CHF 0.9196, support at 0.91, resistance at 0.9223. Gold is at $4,523.

Today’s graph

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Performances

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